Prioritizing a high posterior probability threshold leading to low error rate over high classification accuracy: the validity of MorphoPASSE software for cranial morphological sex estimation in a contemporary population

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11310%2F24%3A10482792" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11310/24:10482792 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=QaBust61.x" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=QaBust61.x</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00414-024-03215-1" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00414-024-03215-1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Prioritizing a high posterior probability threshold leading to low error rate over high classification accuracy: the validity of MorphoPASSE software for cranial morphological sex estimation in a contemporary population

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

An increasing number of software tools can be used in forensic anthropology to estimate a biological profile, but further studies in other populations are required for more robust validation. The present study aimed to evaluate the validity of MorphoPASSE software for sex estimation from sexually dimorphic cranial traits recorded on 3D CT models (n = 180) from three populations samples (Czech, French, and Egyptian). Two independent observers performed scoring of 4 cranial traits (2 of them bilateral) in each population sample of 30 males and 30 females. The accuracy of sex estimation using traditional posterior probability threshold (pp = 0.5) ranged from 85.6% to 88.3% and overall classification error from 14.4% to 11.7% for both observers, and corresponds to the previously published values of the method. The MorphoPASSE method is also affected by the subjectivity of the observers, as both observers show agreement in sex assignment in 83.9% of cases, regardless of the accuracy of the estimates. Applying a higher posterior probability threshold (pp 0.95) provided classification accuracy of 97.9% and 93.3% of individuals (for observer A and B respectively), minimizing the risk of error to 2.1% and 6.7%, respectively. However, sex estimation can only be applied to 54% and 66% of individuals, respectively. Our results demonstrate the validity of the MorphoPASSE software for cranial sex estimation outside the reference population. However, the achieved classification success is accompanied by a high risk of errors, the reduction of which is only possible by increasing the posterior probability threshold.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Prioritizing a high posterior probability threshold leading to low error rate over high classification accuracy: the validity of MorphoPASSE software for cranial morphological sex estimation in a contemporary population

Popis výsledku anglicky

An increasing number of software tools can be used in forensic anthropology to estimate a biological profile, but further studies in other populations are required for more robust validation. The present study aimed to evaluate the validity of MorphoPASSE software for sex estimation from sexually dimorphic cranial traits recorded on 3D CT models (n = 180) from three populations samples (Czech, French, and Egyptian). Two independent observers performed scoring of 4 cranial traits (2 of them bilateral) in each population sample of 30 males and 30 females. The accuracy of sex estimation using traditional posterior probability threshold (pp = 0.5) ranged from 85.6% to 88.3% and overall classification error from 14.4% to 11.7% for both observers, and corresponds to the previously published values of the method. The MorphoPASSE method is also affected by the subjectivity of the observers, as both observers show agreement in sex assignment in 83.9% of cases, regardless of the accuracy of the estimates. Applying a higher posterior probability threshold (pp 0.95) provided classification accuracy of 97.9% and 93.3% of individuals (for observer A and B respectively), minimizing the risk of error to 2.1% and 6.7%, respectively. However, sex estimation can only be applied to 54% and 66% of individuals, respectively. Our results demonstrate the validity of the MorphoPASSE software for cranial sex estimation outside the reference population. However, the achieved classification success is accompanied by a high risk of errors, the reduction of which is only possible by increasing the posterior probability threshold.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10600 - Biological sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

International Journal of Legal Medicine

ISSN

0937-9827

e-ISSN

1437-1596

Svazek periodika

138

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

July

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

1759-1768

Kód UT WoS článku

001191048400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85188671521