An upper-branch Brewer-Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F16%3A10334379" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/16:10334379 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016" target="_blank" >10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

An upper-branch Brewer-Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We find that wintertime temperature anomalies near 4 hPa and 50 degrees N/S are related, through dynamics, to anomalies in ozone and temperature, particularly in the tropical stratosphere but also throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. These mid-latitude anomalies occur on timescales of up to a month, and are related to changes in wave forcing. A change in the meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation extends from the middle stratosphere into the mesosphere and forms a temperature-change quadrupole from Equator to pole. We develop a dynamical index based on detrended, deseasonalised mid-latitude temperature. When employed in multiple linear regression, this index can account for up to 60% of the total variability of temperature, peaking at similar to 5 hPa and dropping to 0 at similar to 50 and similar to 0.5 hPa, respectively, and increasing again into the mesosphere. Ozone similarly sees up to an additional 50% of variability accounted for, with a slightly higher maximum and strong altitude dependence, with zero improvement found at 10 hPa. Further, the uncertainty on all equatorial multiple-linear regression coefficients can be reduced by up to 35 and 20% in temperature and ozone, respectively, and so this index is an important tool for quantifying current and future ozone recovery.

Název v anglickém jazyce

An upper-branch Brewer-Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

Popis výsledku anglicky

We find that wintertime temperature anomalies near 4 hPa and 50 degrees N/S are related, through dynamics, to anomalies in ozone and temperature, particularly in the tropical stratosphere but also throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. These mid-latitude anomalies occur on timescales of up to a month, and are related to changes in wave forcing. A change in the meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation extends from the middle stratosphere into the mesosphere and forms a temperature-change quadrupole from Equator to pole. We develop a dynamical index based on detrended, deseasonalised mid-latitude temperature. When employed in multiple linear regression, this index can account for up to 60% of the total variability of temperature, peaking at similar to 5 hPa and dropping to 0 at similar to 50 and similar to 0.5 hPa, respectively, and increasing again into the mesosphere. Ozone similarly sees up to an additional 50% of variability accounted for, with a slightly higher maximum and strong altitude dependence, with zero improvement found at 10 hPa. Further, the uncertainty on all equatorial multiple-linear regression coefficients can be reduced by up to 35 and 20% in temperature and ozone, respectively, and so this index is an important tool for quantifying current and future ozone recovery.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GC16-01562J" target="_blank" >GC16-01562J: Dopady lokalizovaného působení gravitačních vln na střední atmosféru</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ISSN

1680-7316

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

16

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

24

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

15485-15500

Kód UT WoS článku

000391486900004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85003982882