Forecasting in Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F19%3A10406273" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/19:10406273 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=u.2EOV0thb" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=u.2EOV0thb</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12142718" target="_blank" >10.3390/en12142718</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forecasting in Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenges traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for consumers. Blockchain-based LEMs provide a decentralized market to local energy consumer and prosumers. They implement a market mechanism in the form of a smart contract without the need for a central authority coordinating the market. Recently proposed blockchain-based LEMs use auction designs to match future demand and supply. Thus, such blockchain-based LEMs rely on accurate short-term forecasts of individual households&apos; energy consumption and production. Often, such accurate forecasts are simply assumed to be given. The present research tested this assumption by first evaluating the forecast accuracy achievable with state-of-the-art energy forecasting techniques for individual households and then, assessing the effect of prediction errors on market outcomes in three different supply scenarios. The evaluation showed that, although a LASSO regression model is capable of achieving reasonably low forecasting errors, the costly settlement of prediction errors can offset and even surpass the savings brought to consumers by a blockchain-based LEM. This shows that, due to prediction errors, participation in LEMs may be uneconomical for consumers, and thus, has to be taken into consideration for pricing mechanisms in blockchain-based LEMs.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forecasting in Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets

Popis výsledku anglicky

Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenges traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for consumers. Blockchain-based LEMs provide a decentralized market to local energy consumer and prosumers. They implement a market mechanism in the form of a smart contract without the need for a central authority coordinating the market. Recently proposed blockchain-based LEMs use auction designs to match future demand and supply. Thus, such blockchain-based LEMs rely on accurate short-term forecasts of individual households&apos; energy consumption and production. Often, such accurate forecasts are simply assumed to be given. The present research tested this assumption by first evaluating the forecast accuracy achievable with state-of-the-art energy forecasting techniques for individual households and then, assessing the effect of prediction errors on market outcomes in three different supply scenarios. The evaluation showed that, although a LASSO regression model is capable of achieving reasonably low forecasting errors, the costly settlement of prediction errors can offset and even surpass the savings brought to consumers by a blockchain-based LEM. This shows that, due to prediction errors, participation in LEMs may be uneconomical for consumers, and thus, has to be taken into consideration for pricing mechanisms in blockchain-based LEMs.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GX19-28231X" target="_blank" >GX19-28231X: Dynamické modely pro digitální finance</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energies

ISSN

1996-1073

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

12

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

14

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

27

Strana od-do

2718

Kód UT WoS článku

000478999400078

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85069612424