How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F20%3A10421850" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/20:10421850 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=aMml6gyy4r" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=aMml6gyy4r</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0129183120501120" target="_blank" >10.1142/S0129183120501120</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Macroscopic growth laws describe in an effective way the underlying complex dynamics of the spreading of infections, as in the case of Covid-19, where the counting of the cumulative number N(t) of detected infected individuals is a generally accepted variable to understand the epidemic phase. However, N(t) does not take into account the unknown number of asymptomatic cases A(t). The considered model of Covid-19 spreading is based on a system of coupled differential equations, which include the dynamics of the spreading among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and the strong containment effects due to the social isolation. The solution has been compared with N(t), determined by a single differential equation with no explicit reference to A(t), showing the equivalence of the two methods. The model is applied to Covid-19 spreading in Italy where a transition from an exponential behavior to a Gompertz growth for N(t) has been observed in more recent data. The information contained in the time series N(t) turns out to be reliable to understand the epidemic phase, although it does not describe the total infected population. The asymptomatic population is larger than the symptomatic one in the fast growth phase of the spreading.

Název v anglickém jazyce

How macroscopic laws describe complex dynamics: Asymptomatic population and Covid-19 spreading

Popis výsledku anglicky

Macroscopic growth laws describe in an effective way the underlying complex dynamics of the spreading of infections, as in the case of Covid-19, where the counting of the cumulative number N(t) of detected infected individuals is a generally accepted variable to understand the epidemic phase. However, N(t) does not take into account the unknown number of asymptomatic cases A(t). The considered model of Covid-19 spreading is based on a system of coupled differential equations, which include the dynamics of the spreading among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and the strong containment effects due to the social isolation. The solution has been compared with N(t), determined by a single differential equation with no explicit reference to A(t), showing the equivalence of the two methods. The model is applied to Covid-19 spreading in Italy where a transition from an exponential behavior to a Gompertz growth for N(t) has been observed in more recent data. The information contained in the time series N(t) turns out to be reliable to understand the epidemic phase, although it does not describe the total infected population. The asymptomatic population is larger than the symptomatic one in the fast growth phase of the spreading.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10300 - Physical sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

International Journal of Modern Physics C

ISSN

0129-1831

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

31

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

8

Stát vydavatele periodika

SG - Singapurská republika

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

2050112

Kód UT WoS článku

000567816000008

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85091093106