Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10431336" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10431336 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=JxzoS-k7Or" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=JxzoS-k7Or</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9020031" target="_blank" >10.3390/risks9020031</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the best predictor of the outcome and all previous quotes should be statistically insignificant. We use regression analysis to test for the significance of the previous quotes in both the time setup and the spatial setup based on stopping times, when the quoted probabilities reach certain bounds. The main contribution of this paper is to show how a potentially different distributional opinion based on the violation of the market efficiency can be monetized by optimal trading, where the agent maximizes logarithmic utility function. In particular, the trader can realize a trading profit that corresponds to the likelihood ratio in the situation of one market maker and one market taker, or the Bayes factor in the situation of two or more market takers.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis
Popis výsledku anglicky
This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the best predictor of the outcome and all previous quotes should be statistically insignificant. We use regression analysis to test for the significance of the previous quotes in both the time setup and the spatial setup based on stopping times, when the quoted probabilities reach certain bounds. The main contribution of this paper is to show how a potentially different distributional opinion based on the violation of the market efficiency can be monetized by optimal trading, where the agent maximizes logarithmic utility function. In particular, the trader can realize a trading profit that corresponds to the likelihood ratio in the situation of one market maker and one market taker, or the Bayes factor in the situation of two or more market takers.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
10102 - Applied mathematics
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
<a href="/cs/project/GA18-01137S" target="_blank" >GA18-01137S: Náhodné procesy regresních kvantilů v analýze finančního rizika</a><br>
Návaznosti
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2021
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Risks [online]
ISSN
2227-9091
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
9
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
2
Stát vydavatele periodika
CH - Švýcarská konfederace
Počet stran výsledku
20
Strana od-do
31
Kód UT WoS článku
000623149300001
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85100334306