Analysing decarbonizing strategies in the European power system applying stochastic dominance constraints

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10438224" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10438224 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61989100:27510/21:10247726

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=r04Ss~miow" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=r04Ss~miow</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105438" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105438</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Analysing decarbonizing strategies in the European power system applying stochastic dominance constraints

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In this paper we develop an analysis of the efficiency of the expansion strategies to be followed to attain the emissions targets established by the European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050. A multi-stage investment model in generating and storage capacity from the point of view of a central planner is presented, considering long-term uncertainties in the decision-making process, such as the demand growth and the investment and fuel costs, and short-term variability. To evaluate the wellness of the expansion strategies according to the CO2 emissions generated and the total cost, second-order stochastic dominance constraints are introduced in the model. This approach allows to obtain better expansion strategies enforcing acceptable distributions of CO2 emissions. The numerical study is carried out considering the case of the European power system. The predictions and suggestions made by the European Commission towards 2050 are the basis to define the benchmark solutions, whose outcomes are analysed. The results obtained from this study highlight that a renewable capacity of at least 2900 GW is needed to attain a net zero CO2 emission European power system. The strategy based on carbon capture and storage does not reduce effectively CO2 emissions while it represents an expensive alternative. Including stochastic dominance in the optimization model allows to obtain less expensive alternative expansion strategies with comparatively lower CO2 emissions in the worst scenarios.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Analysing decarbonizing strategies in the European power system applying stochastic dominance constraints

Popis výsledku anglicky

In this paper we develop an analysis of the efficiency of the expansion strategies to be followed to attain the emissions targets established by the European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050. A multi-stage investment model in generating and storage capacity from the point of view of a central planner is presented, considering long-term uncertainties in the decision-making process, such as the demand growth and the investment and fuel costs, and short-term variability. To evaluate the wellness of the expansion strategies according to the CO2 emissions generated and the total cost, second-order stochastic dominance constraints are introduced in the model. This approach allows to obtain better expansion strategies enforcing acceptable distributions of CO2 emissions. The numerical study is carried out considering the case of the European power system. The predictions and suggestions made by the European Commission towards 2050 are the basis to define the benchmark solutions, whose outcomes are analysed. The results obtained from this study highlight that a renewable capacity of at least 2900 GW is needed to attain a net zero CO2 emission European power system. The strategy based on carbon capture and storage does not reduce effectively CO2 emissions while it represents an expensive alternative. Including stochastic dominance in the optimization model allows to obtain less expensive alternative expansion strategies with comparatively lower CO2 emissions in the worst scenarios.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GX19-28231X" target="_blank" >GX19-28231X: Dynamické modely pro digitální finance</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energy Economics

ISSN

0140-9883

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

101

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

September 2021

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

105438

Kód UT WoS článku

000693413200002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85109640217