Explaining trends and changing seasonal cycles of surface ozone in North America and Europe over the 2000-2018 period: a global modelling study with NOx and VOC tagging

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F25%3A10508719" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/25:10508719 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=yLS.MEe6RQ" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=yLS.MEe6RQ</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16833-2025" target="_blank" >10.5194/acp-25-16833-2025</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Explaining trends and changing seasonal cycles of surface ozone in North America and Europe over the 2000-2018 period: a global modelling study with NOx and VOC tagging

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Surface ozone, with its long enough lifetime, can travel far from its precursor emissions, affecting human health, vegetation, and ecosystems on an intercontinental scale. Recent decades have seen significant shifts in ozone precursor emissions: reductions in North America and Europe, increases in Asia, and a steady global rise in methane. Observations from North America and Europe show declining ozone trends, a flattened seasonal cycle, a shift in peak ozone from summer to spring, and increasing wintertime levels. To explain these changes, we use TOAST 1.0, a novel ozone tagging technique implemented in the global atmospheric model CAM4-Chem which attributes ozone to its precursor emissions fully by NOx or VOC+CO+CH4 sources and perform multi-decadal model simulations for 2000-2018. Model-simulated maximum daily 8 h ozone (MDA8 O3) agrees well with rural observations from the TOAR-II database. Our analysis reveals that declining local NOx contributions to peak-season ozone (PSO) in North America and Europe are offset by rising contributions from natural NOx (due to increased O3 production), and foreign anthropogenic- and international shipping NOx due to increased emissions. Transported ozone dominates during spring. Methane is the largest VOC contributor to PSO, while natural NMVOCs become more important in summer. Contributions from anthropogenic NMVOCs remain smaller than those from anthropogenic NOx. Despite rising global methane levels, its contribution to PSO in North America and Europe has declined due to reductions in local NOx emissions. Our results highlight the evolving drivers of surface ozone and emphasize the need for coordinated global strategies that consider both regional emission trends and long-range pollutant transport.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Explaining trends and changing seasonal cycles of surface ozone in North America and Europe over the 2000-2018 period: a global modelling study with NOx and VOC tagging

Popis výsledku anglicky

Surface ozone, with its long enough lifetime, can travel far from its precursor emissions, affecting human health, vegetation, and ecosystems on an intercontinental scale. Recent decades have seen significant shifts in ozone precursor emissions: reductions in North America and Europe, increases in Asia, and a steady global rise in methane. Observations from North America and Europe show declining ozone trends, a flattened seasonal cycle, a shift in peak ozone from summer to spring, and increasing wintertime levels. To explain these changes, we use TOAST 1.0, a novel ozone tagging technique implemented in the global atmospheric model CAM4-Chem which attributes ozone to its precursor emissions fully by NOx or VOC+CO+CH4 sources and perform multi-decadal model simulations for 2000-2018. Model-simulated maximum daily 8 h ozone (MDA8 O3) agrees well with rural observations from the TOAR-II database. Our analysis reveals that declining local NOx contributions to peak-season ozone (PSO) in North America and Europe are offset by rising contributions from natural NOx (due to increased O3 production), and foreign anthropogenic- and international shipping NOx due to increased emissions. Transported ozone dominates during spring. Methane is the largest VOC contributor to PSO, while natural NMVOCs become more important in summer. Contributions from anthropogenic NMVOCs remain smaller than those from anthropogenic NOx. Despite rising global methane levels, its contribution to PSO in North America and Europe has declined due to reductions in local NOx emissions. Our results highlight the evolving drivers of surface ozone and emphasize the need for coordinated global strategies that consider both regional emission trends and long-range pollutant transport.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ISSN

1680-7316

e-ISSN

1680-7324

Svazek periodika

25

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

22

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

44

Strana od-do

16833-16876

Kód UT WoS článku

001622705900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105023319728