Electricity consumption modelling: a case of Germany

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11640%2F16%3A00459223" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11640/16:00459223 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.010</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Electricity consumption modelling: a case of Germany

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Recent research has found that electricity consumption is a very useful variable in economics. In many applications it might be desirable to decompose electricity consumption into unpredictable and deterministic (or highly predictable) component. We want to find out whether forecasting works better if we model electricity load independently for each hour or if we model in the first step the average daily consumption and in a second step we model for each hour deviation from this average. We therefore compare two simple, yet flexible models for hourly electricity consumption in Germany. Both models use temperature, industrial production, hours of daylight and dummies for days of the week and month of the year as explanatory variables. We find that the first model, despite being simpler, forecasts hourly electricity demand more precisely. This indicates that hourly electricity consumption represents various goods, and should be modelled separately for each hour.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Electricity consumption modelling: a case of Germany

Popis výsledku anglicky

Recent research has found that electricity consumption is a very useful variable in economics. In many applications it might be desirable to decompose electricity consumption into unpredictable and deterministic (or highly predictable) component. We want to find out whether forecasting works better if we model electricity load independently for each hour or if we model in the first step the average daily consumption and in a second step we model for each hour deviation from this average. We therefore compare two simple, yet flexible models for hourly electricity consumption in Germany. Both models use temperature, industrial production, hours of daylight and dummies for days of the week and month of the year as explanatory variables. We find that the first model, despite being simpler, forecasts hourly electricity demand more precisely. This indicates that hourly electricity consumption represents various goods, and should be modelled separately for each hour.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Economic Modelling

ISSN

0264-9993

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

55

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

June

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

92-101

Kód UT WoS článku

000375164200009

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84960908856