Econometric modelling of a region's potential to attract foreign direct investments

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11640%2F20%3A00541604" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11640/20:00541604 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.17059/2020-1-23" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.17059/2020-1-23</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/2020-1-23" target="_blank" >10.17059/2020-1-23</a>

Jazyk výsledku

ruština

Název v původním jazyce

Ekonometricheskoye modelirovaniye potentsiala regiona po privlecheniyu pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Postupayushchiye v rossiyskuyu ekonomiku pryamyye inostrannyye investitsii raspredelyayutsya mezhdu regionami krayne neravnomerno. Prichina etogo zaklyuchayetsya kak v razlichiyakh ekonomicheskikh kharakteristik samikh rossiyskikh regionov, tak i v raznom urovne effektivnosti regional'nykh vlastey po privlecheniyu pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy. Otsenka potentsiala regiona po privlecheniyu pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy mozhet sluzhit' vazhnym oriyentirom pri otsenke kachestva raboty regional'nykh vlastey po sozdaniyu usloviy dlya privlecheniya v region inostrannykh investitsiy. V osnove raboty — postroyeniye i posleduyushchaya otsenka ekonometricheskoy modeli determinantov pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy na regional'nom urovne. Teoreticheskoy bazoy dlya ekonometricheskoy modeli yavlyayetsya gravitatsionnyy podkhod. Dlya rascheta potentsialov pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy ispol'zuyutsya otsenki, poluchennyye Puassonovskim metodom psevdomaksimal'nogo pravdopodobiya. Ispol'zuya dannyye za period 2015–2017 gg., vyyavleny znachimyye faktory, vliyayushchiye na pritok pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy v RF na regional'nom urovne: dostupnost' rabochey sily, uroven' byurokratii v regione, uroven' dokhodov naseleniya, plotnost' naseleniya, a takzhe finansovyye rezul'taty organizatsiy v regione. Na osnovanii rasschitannykh investitsionnykh potentsialov vydeleny uspeshnyye i otstayushchiye rossiyskiye regiony v otnoshenii ob”yemov privlekayemykh pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy. Proveden analiz rossiyskikh regionov v kategoriyakh ob”yem privlekayemykh pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy i po sootnosheniyu fakt / potentsial postupayushchikh pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy. Krupneyshiye rossiyskiye regiony po urovnyu postupleniya PII imeyut ogranicheniya po rostu ob”yemov pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy, tak kak libo prevyshayut svoy potentsial'nyy uroven' (Moskovskaya oblast', Krasnodarskiy kray, Samarskaya oblast'), libo nakhodyatsya na urovne, blizkom k potentsial'nomu (g. Moskva, Leningradskaya oblast', g. Sankt-Peterburg). V to zhe vremya bol'she poloviny rossiyskikh regionov (41 iz analiziruyemykh 82) ne tol'ko imeyut krayne nizkiy potentsial privlecheniya pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy, no i po fakticheskomu urovnyu postupayushchikh pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy nakhodyatsya nizhe potentsial'nogo urovnya. Zametnyy rost ob”yemov postupayushchikh pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy v masshtabakh strany mozhet prinesti nemnogochislennaya gruppa regionov s vysokim i srednim urovnem postupayushchikh pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy, no so znachitel'nym nerealizovannym potentsialom (v chastnosti, Respublika Bashkortostan, Respublika Tatarstan, Sverdlovskaya oblast', Respublika Udmurtiya, KHMAO — Yugra, Orenburgskaya oblast', Belgorodskaya oblast'). Predlozhennaya v stat'ye metodika otsenki potentsial'nogo urovnya pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy regiona i sopostavleniya yego s fakticheskim urovnem mozhet ispol'zovat'sya dlya postanovki zadach profil'nym organam regional'noy vlasti i posleduyushchey otsenki ikh raboty po privlecheniyu pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Econometric modelling of a region's potential to attract foreign direct investments

Popis výsledku anglicky

In the Russian economy, foreign direct investments (FDI) are distributed very unevenly between the regions. This inequality is caused by differences in the regions' economic characteristics, as well as by varying effectiveness of regional policies to attract FDI. The assessment of a region's potential to attract FDI could serve as a guide for analysing the effectiveness of local authorities in terms of creating a positive environment for foreign investors. The research focuses on constructing and assessing an econometric model of FDI determinants at the regional level. The theoretical foundation for this model is a gravity approach. We used estimates obtained with the help of Poisson's method of quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for calculating the potential of foreign direct investments. Using the data for the period from 2015 to 2017, we identified the crucial factors influencing the inflow of foreign direct investment in Russia at the regional level: availability of the workforce, level of bureaucracy, level of income, population density, and the financial results of the regional companies. Based on the calculated potentials, we identified successful and lagging Russian regions in terms of ID! inflows. We analysed and systemised the volume of WI inflows as well as the ratio of actual/potential FDI of the Russian regions. The largest Russian regions in terms of FDI inflows have limitations in growth because they either exceed their potential level already (Moscow Oblast, Krasnodar krai, Samara oblast) or are close to it (Moscow city, Leningrad oblast, Saint-Petersburg city). At the same time, more than a half of the Russian regions (41 out of analysed 82) not only have very low potential to attract FDI inflows, but also operate at a level lower than potential. A significant increase in FDI inflows across the country may be provided by a small group of regions with medium and high levels of FDI inflows but with considerable unrealized potential. This group includes such regions as Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Tatarstan, Sverdlovsk oblast, Udmurt republic, KhMAO-Yugra, Orenburg oblast, and Belgorod oblast. The suggested methodology for assessing a region's FDI potential and comparing it with actual FDI inflows can be used for goal setting for relevant regional authorities and subsequent control of their efforts to attract FDI.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Ekonomika Regiona

ISSN

2072-6414

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

16

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

RU - Ruská federace

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

310-324

Kód UT WoS článku

000522265700023

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85084647637