Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11640%2F22%3A00559293" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11640/22:00559293 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60077344:_____/22:00557330 RIV/67985807:_____/22:00557330 RIV/67985556:_____/22:00557330 RIV/60076658:12310/22:43904745 RIV/00216208:11320/22:10456530

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to delay the second vaccine dose for a longer period than originally recommended by the manufacturers. Controversy has surrounded this strategy, and overly simplistic models have been developed to shed light on this issue. Here we use three different epidemic models, all accounting for then actual COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, including the real vaccination rollout, to explore when delaying the second vaccine dose by another 3 weeks from 21 to 42 days is advantageous. Using COVID-19-related deaths as a quantity to compare various model scenarios, we find that the way of vaccine action at the beginning of the infection course (preventing infection and symptoms appearance), mild epidemic and sufficient vaccine supply rate call for the original inter-dose period of 21 days regardless of vaccine efficacy. On the contrary, for the vaccine action at the end of infection course (preventing severe symptoms and death), severe epidemic and low vaccine supply rate, the 42-day inter-dose period is preferable, at any plausible vaccine efficacy.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose

Popis výsledku anglicky

Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to delay the second vaccine dose for a longer period than originally recommended by the manufacturers. Controversy has surrounded this strategy, and overly simplistic models have been developed to shed light on this issue. Here we use three different epidemic models, all accounting for then actual COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, including the real vaccination rollout, to explore when delaying the second vaccine dose by another 3 weeks from 21 to 42 days is advantageous. Using COVID-19-related deaths as a quantity to compare various model scenarios, we find that the way of vaccine action at the beginning of the infection course (preventing infection and symptoms appearance), mild epidemic and sufficient vaccine supply rate call for the original inter-dose period of 21 days regardless of vaccine efficacy. On the contrary, for the vaccine action at the end of infection course (preventing severe symptoms and death), severe epidemic and low vaccine supply rate, the 42-day inter-dose period is preferable, at any plausible vaccine efficacy.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/TL04000282" target="_blank" >TL04000282: Město pro lidi, ne pro virus</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

2045-2322

Svazek periodika

12

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

7638

Kód UT WoS článku

000793383600002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85129879793