Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11690%2F16%3A10323817" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11690/16:10323817 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421501645X" target="_blank" >http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421501645X</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.003" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.003</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

A dynamic partial equilibrium model, TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), is built to optimize the energy system in a post-transition European country, the Czech Republic. The impacts of overall nine scenarios on installed capacity, capital and fuel costs, air quality pollutant emission, emission of CO2 and environmental and health damage are quantified for a period up to 2050. These scenarios are built around three different price sets of the EUA (EU allowance) to emit greenhouse gasses alongside a policy that retains the ban on brown coal mining in two Czech mines, a policy that will allow the re-opening of mining areas under this ban (i.e. within the territorial ecological limits), and a low natural gas price assumption. We found that the use of up until now dominant brown coal will be significantly reduced in each scenario, although reopening the coal mines will result in its smaller decline. With low EUA price, hard coal will become the dominant fuel in electricity generation, while nuclear will overtake this position with a 51% or even 65% share assuming the central price of EUA, or high EUA price, respectively. The low price of natural gas will result in an increasing gas share from an almost zero share recently up to about 42%. This stimulus does not however appear at all with low EUA price. Neither of these scenarios will achieve the renewable energy sources 2030 targets and only a high EUA price will lead to almost full de-carbonization of the Czech power system, with fossil fuels representing only 16% of the energy mix. The low EUA price will result in an increase in CO2 emissions, whereas the high EUA price will reduce CO2 emission by at least 81% compared to the 2015 reference level.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050

Popis výsledku anglicky

A dynamic partial equilibrium model, TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), is built to optimize the energy system in a post-transition European country, the Czech Republic. The impacts of overall nine scenarios on installed capacity, capital and fuel costs, air quality pollutant emission, emission of CO2 and environmental and health damage are quantified for a period up to 2050. These scenarios are built around three different price sets of the EUA (EU allowance) to emit greenhouse gasses alongside a policy that retains the ban on brown coal mining in two Czech mines, a policy that will allow the re-opening of mining areas under this ban (i.e. within the territorial ecological limits), and a low natural gas price assumption. We found that the use of up until now dominant brown coal will be significantly reduced in each scenario, although reopening the coal mines will result in its smaller decline. With low EUA price, hard coal will become the dominant fuel in electricity generation, while nuclear will overtake this position with a 51% or even 65% share assuming the central price of EUA, or high EUA price, respectively. The low price of natural gas will result in an increasing gas share from an almost zero share recently up to about 42%. This stimulus does not however appear at all with low EUA price. Neither of these scenarios will achieve the renewable energy sources 2030 targets and only a high EUA price will lead to almost full de-carbonization of the Czech power system, with fossil fuels representing only 16% of the energy mix. The low EUA price will result in an increase in CO2 emissions, whereas the high EUA price will reduce CO2 emission by at least 81% compared to the 2015 reference level.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/TD020299" target="_blank" >TD020299: Analýza environmentálních dopadů regulace a predikce vývoje v sektoru energetiky panevropským dynamickým modelem TIMES</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energy

ISSN

0360-5442

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

108

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Srpen

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

19-33

Kód UT WoS článku

000382414200003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84952908490