Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14210%2F25%3A00140647" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14210/25:00140647 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0313684" target="_blank" >https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0313684</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313684" target="_blank" >10.1371/journal.pone.0313684</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Some scholars consider the Antonine Plague to have been a major disease outbreak in the 2nd century CE that caused a significant decline in the population of the Roman Empire. Although there is currently no molecular evidence of the specific pathogen, literary evidence indicates the parameters of the disease that it caused and how significant the impact on Roman society was. One way to advance the current discussion concerning the Antonine Plague’s impact on the Roman Empire’s population is to examine the currently available sources and comparatively model the spread of different pathogens in a specific location with known demographic data for the relevant period. To accomplish this, we developed a series of dynamic ordinary differential equation models of the spread of disease in Rome between 165 and 189 CE for several pathogens. We found that daily disease deaths in the final years of the pandemic were inconsistent with estimates reported in primary sources, suggesting that either (a) the impact of the Antonine Plague may have been exaggerated in the descriptions of ancient authors, or (b) the daily deaths in ca. 189 CE were caused by a different disease event than the Antonine Plague, or (c) seasonality might have been a significant factor changing the intensity of disease spread, with the population more severely affected during the winter months. Although none of the pathogens we analyzed emerged as the likely causative agent of the Antonine Plague, the models show that the overall mortality rate would have increased maximally by 7%. This result contradicts the mortality rate accepted by historians who defend the thesis of the significant impact of this epidemic on the demography of the Roman Empire.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

Popis výsledku anglicky

Some scholars consider the Antonine Plague to have been a major disease outbreak in the 2nd century CE that caused a significant decline in the population of the Roman Empire. Although there is currently no molecular evidence of the specific pathogen, literary evidence indicates the parameters of the disease that it caused and how significant the impact on Roman society was. One way to advance the current discussion concerning the Antonine Plague’s impact on the Roman Empire’s population is to examine the currently available sources and comparatively model the spread of different pathogens in a specific location with known demographic data for the relevant period. To accomplish this, we developed a series of dynamic ordinary differential equation models of the spread of disease in Rome between 165 and 189 CE for several pathogens. We found that daily disease deaths in the final years of the pandemic were inconsistent with estimates reported in primary sources, suggesting that either (a) the impact of the Antonine Plague may have been exaggerated in the descriptions of ancient authors, or (b) the daily deaths in ca. 189 CE were caused by a different disease event than the Antonine Plague, or (c) seasonality might have been a significant factor changing the intensity of disease spread, with the population more severely affected during the winter months. Although none of the pathogens we analyzed emerged as the likely causative agent of the Antonine Plague, the models show that the overall mortality rate would have increased maximally by 7%. This result contradicts the mortality rate accepted by historians who defend the thesis of the significant impact of this epidemic on the demography of the Roman Empire.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

60304 - Religious studies

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

PLOS ONE

ISSN

1932-6203

e-ISSN

1932-6203

Svazek periodika

20

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

24

Strana od-do

1-24

Kód UT WoS článku

001445286500019

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85217826904