Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F19%3A00122708" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/19:00122708 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/19:00506276

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082497" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082497</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082497" target="_blank" >10.1029/2019GL082497</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease. Plan Language Summary Monsoonal rainfall has a certain influence on agriculture and industry in the regions of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). An understanding of the spatial-temporal variability of the ASM and the associated dynamics is vital for terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, forests, and landscapes. We have developed a 448-year ASM reconstruction back to 1566 CE using 10 tree ring chronologies from the margin region of ASM. We find that historical severe droughts and locust plague disasters during weak ASM events. The recent decreasing ASM trend persisting for over 80 years is unprecedented over the past 448 years. Coupled climate models show that increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions are the dominant underlying factor. Our aim is that the time series will find a wide range of utility for understanding past climate variability and for predicting future climate change.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

Popis výsledku anglicky

The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease. Plan Language Summary Monsoonal rainfall has a certain influence on agriculture and industry in the regions of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). An understanding of the spatial-temporal variability of the ASM and the associated dynamics is vital for terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, forests, and landscapes. We have developed a 448-year ASM reconstruction back to 1566 CE using 10 tree ring chronologies from the margin region of ASM. We find that historical severe droughts and locust plague disasters during weak ASM events. The recent decreasing ASM trend persisting for over 80 years is unprecedented over the past 448 years. Coupled climate models show that increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions are the dominant underlying factor. Our aim is that the time series will find a wide range of utility for understanding past climate variability and for predicting future climate change.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10505 - Geology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Geophysical Research Letters

ISSN

0094-8276

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

46

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

10

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

5469-5479

Kód UT WoS článku

000471237500052

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85067610397