Alternative estimates of NAIRU for the Czech economy: Implications for economic growth and stability

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F08%3A00026453" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/08:00026453 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Alternative estimates of NAIRU for the Czech economy: Implications for economic growth and stability

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper deals with alternative estimates of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the Czech economy. NAIRU is meant to be an equivalent with the equilibrium unemployment. Simple hysteretic model of the Phillips curve and multi-equation dynamic macroeconomic model (with rational expectations) are presented. Parameters of these models and paths of the NAIRU are estimated using techniques of Bayesian inference (Gibbs sampler, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm) and filtration (Kalman filter). Trajectory of potential output is estimated in the case of the multi-equation model. Potential output and NAIRU are treated as unobservable states of economic system. Final part of this contribution relates to implications for the sustainable economic growth of the Czech Republic. Estimates indicate hysteretic patterns of the unemployment. The existence of hysteresis has important implications for economic policy and its tools which can be efficient in the battle against unemploym

Název v anglickém jazyce

Alternative estimates of NAIRU for the Czech economy: Implications for economic growth and stability

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper deals with alternative estimates of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the Czech economy. NAIRU is meant to be an equivalent with the equilibrium unemployment. Simple hysteretic model of the Phillips curve and multi-equation dynamic macroeconomic model (with rational expectations) are presented. Parameters of these models and paths of the NAIRU are estimated using techniques of Bayesian inference (Gibbs sampler, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm) and filtration (Kalman filter). Trajectory of potential output is estimated in the case of the multi-equation model. Potential output and NAIRU are treated as unobservable states of economic system. Final part of this contribution relates to implications for the sustainable economic growth of the Czech Republic. Estimates indicate hysteretic patterns of the unemployment. The existence of hysteresis has important implications for economic policy and its tools which can be efficient in the battle against unemploym

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/1M0524" target="_blank" >1M0524: Centrum výzkumu konkurenční schopnosti české ekonomiky</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2008

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů