Interconnectedness of international tourism demand in Europe: A cross-quantilogram network approach

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F19%3A00111141" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/19:00111141 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843711930531X" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843711930531X</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.155" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.155</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Interconnectedness of international tourism demand in Europe: A cross-quantilogram network approach

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We study the interconnectedness of international tourism demand changes among 30 European countries. Using cross-quantilogram analysis, we estimate the strength of the directional (lead/lag) relationships of the international tourism demand of European countries in percentiles (10th, 50th, 90th). The complex interconnectedness of international tourism demand is studied within networks, where a fixed number of vertices represent countries, and oriented edges represent the presence of a directional relationship between the international tourism demand of two countries. A comparison of these networks reveals the following regularities. First, we find obvious asymmetry across percentiles, where demand behaves much more similarly during times of crisis (10th percentile) compared to tranquil periods (50th percentile). The interconnectedness of these networks almost diminishes when the international demand for tourism increases sharply (90th percentile). Second, we observe that the interconnectedness does not change much among the short- (within 3 months), mid- (up to 6 months) and long-term (up to 9 months) lead/lag relationships, which leads us to conclude that much of the interconnectedness of international tourism demand is driven by dependence during the first three months. On the basis of these findings, we review the possible forces that may drive the formation of the resulting complex structures using exponential random graph models. Our third finding is that there is a tendency for the relationships of the international tourism demand among the various countries to be bidirectional. Finally, our fourth new finding is that the interconnectedness of markets during sharp declines in tourism demand tends to increase for Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, and those that are less developed in terms of their relative sector size to the size of the economy.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Interconnectedness of international tourism demand in Europe: A cross-quantilogram network approach

Popis výsledku anglicky

We study the interconnectedness of international tourism demand changes among 30 European countries. Using cross-quantilogram analysis, we estimate the strength of the directional (lead/lag) relationships of the international tourism demand of European countries in percentiles (10th, 50th, 90th). The complex interconnectedness of international tourism demand is studied within networks, where a fixed number of vertices represent countries, and oriented edges represent the presence of a directional relationship between the international tourism demand of two countries. A comparison of these networks reveals the following regularities. First, we find obvious asymmetry across percentiles, where demand behaves much more similarly during times of crisis (10th percentile) compared to tranquil periods (50th percentile). The interconnectedness of these networks almost diminishes when the international demand for tourism increases sharply (90th percentile). Second, we observe that the interconnectedness does not change much among the short- (within 3 months), mid- (up to 6 months) and long-term (up to 9 months) lead/lag relationships, which leads us to conclude that much of the interconnectedness of international tourism demand is driven by dependence during the first three months. On the basis of these findings, we review the possible forces that may drive the formation of the resulting complex structures using exponential random graph models. Our third finding is that there is a tendency for the relationships of the international tourism demand among the various countries to be bidirectional. Finally, our fourth new finding is that the interconnectedness of markets during sharp declines in tourism demand tends to increase for Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, and those that are less developed in terms of their relative sector size to the size of the economy.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

ISSN

0378-4371

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

526

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Neuveden

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

1209-1221

Kód UT WoS článku

000474503800095

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85064319730