Improvement of Prosperity Prediction in Czech Manufacturing Industries

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25410%2F18%3A39913424" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25410/18:39913424 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://inzeko.ktu.lt/index.php/EE/article/view/18231/9717" target="_blank" >http://inzeko.ktu.lt/index.php/EE/article/view/18231/9717</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.29.5.18231" target="_blank" >10.5755/j01.ee.29.5.18231</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Improvement of Prosperity Prediction in Czech Manufacturing Industries

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

There are many ways to determine financial health of a company. Classic tools of financial analysis emphasize data in financial statements. When trying to reach an overall classification of a company, e.g. from the point of view of an investor, indicators of profitability, liquidity, leverage and activity might generate contradictory clues regarding financial health of the company. Such analysis does not only generate ambiguous results, but is also lengthy. Therefore, the IN05 financial model was created for particular specifics of the Czech Republic economic environment to predict prosperity of companies. It measures the prosperity on the base of economic value added (EVA). More than ten years have passed since the launch of the IN05 index. The aim of this study is to quantify contemporary prediction strength of the IN05 index on a sample of almost 500 companies. Moreover, an effort was made to enhance the accuracy of the model for particular branches of manufacturing industries. It was found that contemporary explanatory power of the index IN05 is 48.58 % when applying the original evaluation scale, and 70.79 % when assessing 68.62 % of the sample except the gray zone. The accuracy of the model was enhanced by the author in all categories, i.e. a higher accuracy (correct prediction probability) without considering the gray zone and higher accuracy (conditioned correct prediction probability) using the gray zones in all branches of manufacturing industries. Robustness of these results was verified on another sample of 195 companies.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Improvement of Prosperity Prediction in Czech Manufacturing Industries

Popis výsledku anglicky

There are many ways to determine financial health of a company. Classic tools of financial analysis emphasize data in financial statements. When trying to reach an overall classification of a company, e.g. from the point of view of an investor, indicators of profitability, liquidity, leverage and activity might generate contradictory clues regarding financial health of the company. Such analysis does not only generate ambiguous results, but is also lengthy. Therefore, the IN05 financial model was created for particular specifics of the Czech Republic economic environment to predict prosperity of companies. It measures the prosperity on the base of economic value added (EVA). More than ten years have passed since the launch of the IN05 index. The aim of this study is to quantify contemporary prediction strength of the IN05 index on a sample of almost 500 companies. Moreover, an effort was made to enhance the accuracy of the model for particular branches of manufacturing industries. It was found that contemporary explanatory power of the index IN05 is 48.58 % when applying the original evaluation scale, and 70.79 % when assessing 68.62 % of the sample except the gray zone. The accuracy of the model was enhanced by the author in all categories, i.e. a higher accuracy (correct prediction probability) without considering the gray zone and higher accuracy (conditioned correct prediction probability) using the gray zones in all branches of manufacturing industries. Robustness of these results was verified on another sample of 195 companies.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Inžinerine Ekonomika / Engineering Economics

ISSN

1392-2785

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

29

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

LT - Litevská republika

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

516-525

Kód UT WoS článku

000453577500003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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