To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F14%3APU111799" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/14:PU111799 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814060613" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814060613</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.241" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.241</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

According to some authors, bankruptcy models are less accurate if used in an environment different from the one for which they were designed. This is due to the higher heterogeneity of the data. The accuracy of the prediction model may be improved by reducing this heterogeneity. An alternative solution to the problem of the limited transferability (e.g. robustness) of a model may be to identify the environmental factors that affect the models prediction accuracy and incorporate them into it. This paper presents research of the prediction accuracy of a bankruptcy model in four countries and the correlation found between the development of selected macroeconomic indicators in these countries. It proved possible in this way to identify those macroeconomic factors that show similar correlation patterns between given environments as investigated by the accuracy of the bankruptcy model. These factors include, first and foremost, the performance of the economy, inflation and unemployment. The incorporation into the model of such factors is very likely to increase model robustness.

Název v anglickém jazyce

To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

According to some authors, bankruptcy models are less accurate if used in an environment different from the one for which they were designed. This is due to the higher heterogeneity of the data. The accuracy of the prediction model may be improved by reducing this heterogeneity. An alternative solution to the problem of the limited transferability (e.g. robustness) of a model may be to identify the environmental factors that affect the models prediction accuracy and incorporate them into it. This paper presents research of the prediction accuracy of a bankruptcy model in four countries and the correlation found between the development of selected macroeconomic indicators in these countries. It proved possible in this way to identify those macroeconomic factors that show similar correlation patterns between given environments as investigated by the accuracy of the bankruptcy model. These factors include, first and foremost, the performance of the economy, inflation and unemployment. The incorporation into the model of such factors is very likely to increase model robustness.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50602 - Public administration

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences

ISBN

—

ISSN

1877-0428

e-ISSN

—

Počet stran výsledku

5

Strana od-do

564-568

Název nakladatele

Elsevier

Místo vydání

Neuveden

Místo konání akce

Riga, Lotyšsko

Datum konání akce

23. 4. 2014

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000360006400109