Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F16%3APU120247" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/16:PU120247 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116303574" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116303574</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.07.029" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.rser.2016.07.029</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

There is a broad spectrum of BR (Biofuel Related) models. However the models are highly specific. Such models cannot flexibly support complex decision making activities to identify feasible trade-offs among many objective functions. They represent just one point of view; e.g. engineering, company economics. Therefore CBRMs (Complex Biofuel Related Model) are studied in this paper. CBRMs must cover additional aspects, e.g. macroeconomic, ecology, sociology and politics. Such models are inevitably unique, partially subjective, inconsistent, vague and multidimensional. AI (Artificial Intelligence) has developed a number of tools to solve such problems. Qualitative reasoning is one of them. It is based on the least information intensive quantifiers i.e. trends. There are just three trend / qualitative values: plus/increasing; zero/constant; negative/decreasing. There are many CBRM items related to soft aspects e.g. politics, taxation etc. which cannot be quantified by numbers. They are too vague. For example – if the political/sociological sensitivity of land ownership is increasing then the cost of biofuels is increasing. Such verbal knowledge item cannot be incorporated into a traditional numerical model. The paper describes developments of CBRMs based on expert knowledge and common sense. A consensus among experts is often not reached because of substantial subjectivity of experts’ knowledge. A qualitative intersection of CBRMs developed by several experts is simple. The case study presents a model based on integration of 10 heuristics using 9 variables e.g. Refinery Capacity, Cost of Biofuel Production, and Biofuel Demand. The result is represented by 13 scenarios. The paper is self-contained, no a prior knowledge of qualitative models is required.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review

Popis výsledku anglicky

There is a broad spectrum of BR (Biofuel Related) models. However the models are highly specific. Such models cannot flexibly support complex decision making activities to identify feasible trade-offs among many objective functions. They represent just one point of view; e.g. engineering, company economics. Therefore CBRMs (Complex Biofuel Related Model) are studied in this paper. CBRMs must cover additional aspects, e.g. macroeconomic, ecology, sociology and politics. Such models are inevitably unique, partially subjective, inconsistent, vague and multidimensional. AI (Artificial Intelligence) has developed a number of tools to solve such problems. Qualitative reasoning is one of them. It is based on the least information intensive quantifiers i.e. trends. There are just three trend / qualitative values: plus/increasing; zero/constant; negative/decreasing. There are many CBRM items related to soft aspects e.g. politics, taxation etc. which cannot be quantified by numbers. They are too vague. For example – if the political/sociological sensitivity of land ownership is increasing then the cost of biofuels is increasing. Such verbal knowledge item cannot be incorporated into a traditional numerical model. The paper describes developments of CBRMs based on expert knowledge and common sense. A consensus among experts is often not reached because of substantial subjectivity of experts’ knowledge. A qualitative intersection of CBRMs developed by several experts is simple. The case study presents a model based on integration of 10 heuristics using 9 variables e.g. Refinery Capacity, Cost of Biofuel Production, and Biofuel Demand. The result is represented by 13 scenarios. The paper is self-contained, no a prior knowledge of qualitative models is required.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50602 - Public administration

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

ISSN

1364-0321

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

65

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

677-684

Kód UT WoS článku

000383293800049

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84989837130