Bankruptcy Prediction: To what Degree does Past Development Count?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F16%3APU121450" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/16:PU121450 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://wseas.org/wseas/cms.action?id=12125" target="_blank" >http://wseas.org/wseas/cms.action?id=12125</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Bankruptcy Prediction: To what Degree does Past Development Count?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Abstract: In most cases, bankruptcy models are based on financial indicators (so called predictors) that describe a current condition or a certain area of financial health, like profitability, indebtedness and so on. But they do not tell us anything about relevant past development in this area. The main question of the research presented was, how much of the information about the past development could be useful in predicting bankruptcy. The aim of our research is to analyse the partial potential of financial ratios for predicting bankruptcy and to compare their importance with the importance of commonly used indicators. Twenty eight indicators were examined in a sample of construction companies operating in the Czech Republic, as well as their development over the past five periods. The non-parametric Boosted Trees method was used to evaluate the relative importance of predictors. The results show that the indicators describing past development could be a significant predictor of bankruptcy, however their main potential is in possible synergy with the indicators describing the current state, both being of the same area of financial health.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Bankruptcy Prediction: To what Degree does Past Development Count?

Popis výsledku anglicky

Abstract: In most cases, bankruptcy models are based on financial indicators (so called predictors) that describe a current condition or a certain area of financial health, like profitability, indebtedness and so on. But they do not tell us anything about relevant past development in this area. The main question of the research presented was, how much of the information about the past development could be useful in predicting bankruptcy. The aim of our research is to analyse the partial potential of financial ratios for predicting bankruptcy and to compare their importance with the importance of commonly used indicators. Twenty eight indicators were examined in a sample of construction companies operating in the Czech Republic, as well as their development over the past five periods. The non-parametric Boosted Trees method was used to evaluate the relative importance of predictors. The results show that the indicators describing past development could be a significant predictor of bankruptcy, however their main potential is in possible synergy with the indicators describing the current state, both being of the same area of financial health.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

ISSN

2224-2899

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

AT - Rakouská republika

Počet stran výsledku

488

Strana od-do

480-488

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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