From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04274644%3A_____%2F26%3A%230001266" target="_blank" >RIV/04274644:_____/26:#0001266 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41110/25:106428

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421525004112" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421525004112</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114904" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114904</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The 2022 energy crisis exposed deep structural vulnerabilities in the European gas market, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a region historically dependent on Russian gas and lacking fully liberalized markets. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical assessment of the integration of the gas spot market in nine CEE countries from 2021 to 2024, employing Granger causality, Johansen cointegration, vector error correction models (VECM), impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition. The results reveal an increase in regional price convergence, driven by expanded infrastructure, flexible trading mechanisms, and policy interventions such as the Ukrainian short-haul transit service and the EU's REPowerEU plan. However, integration and market cohesion remain uneven. Countries like Germany, Poland, and Czechia function as central price-setters, while others, notably Romania and Bulgaria, exhibit greater exposure to shocks. Infrastructure projects such as the GIPL interconnector and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals significantly reduce price imbalances, but events like Germany's cross-border transport levy (GSU) introduce persistent distortions. This paper highlights progress and persistent asymmetries in the CEE gas market integration, offering insider policy recommendations. It demonstrates the need for coordinated policy action, harmonized regulation, and continued investment in interconnectors and storage to ensure resilient and interconnected gas markets throughout the EU.

Název v anglickém jazyce

From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis

Popis výsledku anglicky

The 2022 energy crisis exposed deep structural vulnerabilities in the European gas market, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a region historically dependent on Russian gas and lacking fully liberalized markets. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical assessment of the integration of the gas spot market in nine CEE countries from 2021 to 2024, employing Granger causality, Johansen cointegration, vector error correction models (VECM), impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition. The results reveal an increase in regional price convergence, driven by expanded infrastructure, flexible trading mechanisms, and policy interventions such as the Ukrainian short-haul transit service and the EU's REPowerEU plan. However, integration and market cohesion remain uneven. Countries like Germany, Poland, and Czechia function as central price-setters, while others, notably Romania and Bulgaria, exhibit greater exposure to shocks. Infrastructure projects such as the GIPL interconnector and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals significantly reduce price imbalances, but events like Germany's cross-border transport levy (GSU) introduce persistent distortions. This paper highlights progress and persistent asymmetries in the CEE gas market integration, offering insider policy recommendations. It demonstrates the need for coordinated policy action, harmonized regulation, and continued investment in interconnectors and storage to ensure resilient and interconnected gas markets throughout the EU.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2026

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energy Policy

ISSN

0301-4215

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

208

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

January

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

114904

Kód UT WoS článku

001590211800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105017707141