Surface water change of a small lake in Central Asia and climatic factors: A dynamic linear model analysis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F19194951%3A_____%2F24%3AN0000014" target="_blank" >RIV/19194951:_____/24:N0000014 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/7229" target="_blank" >https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/7229</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/jipd7229" target="_blank" >10.24294/jipd7229</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Surface water change of a small lake in Central Asia and climatic factors: A dynamic linear model analysis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The area of lake surface water is shrinking rapidly in Central Asia. We explore anthropogenic and climate factors driving this trend in Shalkar Lake, located in the Aral Sea region in Kazakhstan, Central Asia. We employ the Landsat satellite archive to map interannual changes in surface water between 1986 and 2021. The high temporal resolution of our dataset allows us to analyze the water surface data to investigate the time series of surface water change, economic and agricultural activities, and climate drivers like precipitation, evaporation, and air temperature. Toward this end, we utilize dynamic linear models (DLM). Our findings suggest that the shrinking of Shalkar Lake does not exhibit a systemic trend that could be associated with climate factors. Our empirical analysis, adopted to address local conditions, reveals that water reduction in the area is related to human interventions, particularly agricultural activities during the research period. On the other hand, the retrospectively fitted values indicate a semi-regular periodicity despite anthropogenic factors. Our results demonstrate that climate factors still play an essential role and should not be disregarded. Additionally, considering long-term climate projections in environmental impact assessment is crucial. The projected increase in temperatures and the corresponding decline in lake size highlight the need for proactive measures in managing water resources under changing climatic conditions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Surface water change of a small lake in Central Asia and climatic factors: A dynamic linear model analysis

Popis výsledku anglicky

The area of lake surface water is shrinking rapidly in Central Asia. We explore anthropogenic and climate factors driving this trend in Shalkar Lake, located in the Aral Sea region in Kazakhstan, Central Asia. We employ the Landsat satellite archive to map interannual changes in surface water between 1986 and 2021. The high temporal resolution of our dataset allows us to analyze the water surface data to investigate the time series of surface water change, economic and agricultural activities, and climate drivers like precipitation, evaporation, and air temperature. Toward this end, we utilize dynamic linear models (DLM). Our findings suggest that the shrinking of Shalkar Lake does not exhibit a systemic trend that could be associated with climate factors. Our empirical analysis, adopted to address local conditions, reveals that water reduction in the area is related to human interventions, particularly agricultural activities during the research period. On the other hand, the retrospectively fitted values indicate a semi-regular periodicity despite anthropogenic factors. Our results demonstrate that climate factors still play an essential role and should not be disregarded. Additionally, considering long-term climate projections in environmental impact assessment is crucial. The projected increase in temperatures and the corresponding decline in lake size highlight the need for proactive measures in managing water resources under changing climatic conditions.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development

ISSN

2572-7923

e-ISSN

2572-7931

Svazek periodika

8

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

15

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

1-23

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

—