Evaluating Government Tax Revenue Forecasts: Czech and Slovak Cases

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F26138077%3A_____%2F14%3A%230000766" target="_blank" >RIV/26138077:_____/14:#0000766 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Evaluating Government Tax Revenue Forecasts: Czech and Slovak Cases

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper deals with the accuracy of tax revenue forecasts produced by the Czech and Slovak governments in the 2004-2013 period. Utilizing a combination of scale-dependent (AFE, RMSE), percentage (MAPE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, a commonpattern of three distinctive phases was identified: (i) the growth period (2004-2006) with prudent under-shooting of the real revenues and relatively low errors, (ii) the recession period (2007-2010) with strong tendency to over-forecast and substantially higher errors and (iii) the stagnation period (2010-2013) with a gradual return to conservative under-shooting and reduction of errors to pre-recession level. Comparison of both countries´ accuracy showed that although the Czech forecasts generally achieved lower standard errors, the Slovak forecasts performed better versus the na?ve benchmark, offering higher added value in the more volatile environment. However, international comparison showed that both countries failed to successfu

Název v anglickém jazyce

Evaluating Government Tax Revenue Forecasts: Czech and Slovak Cases

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper deals with the accuracy of tax revenue forecasts produced by the Czech and Slovak governments in the 2004-2013 period. Utilizing a combination of scale-dependent (AFE, RMSE), percentage (MAPE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, a commonpattern of three distinctive phases was identified: (i) the growth period (2004-2006) with prudent under-shooting of the real revenues and relatively low errors, (ii) the recession period (2007-2010) with strong tendency to over-forecast and substantially higher errors and (iii) the stagnation period (2010-2013) with a gradual return to conservative under-shooting and reduction of errors to pre-recession level. Comparison of both countries´ accuracy showed that although the Czech forecasts generally achieved lower standard errors, the Slovak forecasts performed better versus the na?ve benchmark, offering higher added value in the more volatile environment. However, international comparison showed that both countries failed to successfu

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Prognostické práce

ISSN

1338-3590

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

6

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

SK - Slovenská republika

Počet stran výsledku

22

Strana od-do

229-250

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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