The risks associated with the “Danish scenario” for the participation of the Czech koruna in the ERM II

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F26138077%3A_____%2F18%3A%230000912" target="_blank" >RIV/26138077:_____/18:#0000912 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.slu.cz/opf/cz/struktura/katedry/katedra-ekonomie-a-verejne-spravy/konference-kek-2018/sbornik-1/" target="_blank" >https://www.slu.cz/opf/cz/struktura/katedry/katedra-ekonomie-a-verejne-spravy/konference-kek-2018/sbornik-1/</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The risks associated with the “Danish scenario” for the participation of the Czech koruna in the ERM II

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The strategy for the adoption of the euro in the Czech Republic involves the entry of the Czech koruna into the ERM II mechanism for only the essential amount of time (approximately 2,5 years). No date has yet been set for the introduction of the euro. The situation may, however, arise where it will be desirable to introduce the euro as soon as possible. It would therefore be advisable to enter the ERM II even without a set date for the introduction of the euro (a so-called “technical entry” to the ERM II; “the Danish scenario” for entry into the ERM II). However, participation in the ERM II mechanism means fixing the exchange rate, which is associated with the risk of speculative attacks. The aim of this paper is to assess the experiences of those countries, whose currencies have been in ERM II for a longer period of time. The currencies exchange rates of Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were stable at the time of their participation in the ERM II, even in the crisis years of 2007-2009. The exchange rate stability criterion would be met in its hypothetical assessment. The key condition for this stability is the conviction of the participants in the foreign exchange markets with regard to the determination of the central bank to keep the exchange rate within the ERM II and sufficiently high foreign exchange reserves of the central bank.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The risks associated with the “Danish scenario” for the participation of the Czech koruna in the ERM II

Popis výsledku anglicky

The strategy for the adoption of the euro in the Czech Republic involves the entry of the Czech koruna into the ERM II mechanism for only the essential amount of time (approximately 2,5 years). No date has yet been set for the introduction of the euro. The situation may, however, arise where it will be desirable to introduce the euro as soon as possible. It would therefore be advisable to enter the ERM II even without a set date for the introduction of the euro (a so-called “technical entry” to the ERM II; “the Danish scenario” for entry into the ERM II). However, participation in the ERM II mechanism means fixing the exchange rate, which is associated with the risk of speculative attacks. The aim of this paper is to assess the experiences of those countries, whose currencies have been in ERM II for a longer period of time. The currencies exchange rates of Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were stable at the time of their participation in the ERM II, even in the crisis years of 2007-2009. The exchange rate stability criterion would be met in its hypothetical assessment. The key condition for this stability is the conviction of the participants in the foreign exchange markets with regard to the determination of the central bank to keep the exchange rate within the ERM II and sufficiently high foreign exchange reserves of the central bank.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50206 - Finance

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA16-21506S" target="_blank" >GA16-21506S: Nové zdroje systémového rizika na finančních trzích</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings of 16th International Conference “Economic Policy in the European Union Member Countries”

ISBN

9788075102898

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

139-149

Název nakladatele

Silesian University in Opava, School of Business Administration in Karvina

Místo vydání

Karviná

Místo konání akce

Čeladná

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2018

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000485363200016