Coherence of Trend and Business Cycle in the Development of Main Macroeconomic Indicators

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Coherence of Trend and Business Cycle in the Development of Main Macroeconomic Indicators

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The objective of the paper is to show the limits of the application of statistical extrapolation methods used in forecasting the economic growth of a country. These limits arise from the choice of forecasting model as well as from the choice of time period length. The beginning and the end of the selected time period is strongly influenced by the phase of the business cycle. The extrapolation method used in this paper is applied to particular examples of GDP development in the Czech Republic in different time periods. The analysis in this paper has two parts. 1.The effect of different business cycle amplitudes of fluctuations, together with different trends, on the economic growth measurement is shown graphically in model situations. The development of economic indicators is composed by the cycle and the trend (in case of a short time-series after seasonal adjustment). In the economy of two countries with the same amplitude of cyclical fluctuation the fast growing trend means only a slowing of growth in the recession phase, but a low rate of growth may show an absolute decline in production. The second option is the analysis of two countries with different amplitudes of cyclical fluctuation by the same trend of economic development. Deeper recessions mean an absolute decrease in the volume of production in comparison with slowing down economic growth in the case of mild recessions. 2.Examples show that time period choice influences the method of extrapolation as well as the resulting trend. The choice of forecasting model depends not only on the trend development of the analyzed macroeconomic indicator but also on the length of period chosen to build the model on. This is especially the case when, due to the cycle,high fluctuation due to the cycle appears, bringing with it the shortening orextension of the analyzed time period (by only one or two years even). This can crucially influence the results of the analysis.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Coherence of Trend and Business Cycle in the Development of Main Macroeconomic Indicators

Popis výsledku anglicky

The objective of the paper is to show the limits of the application of statistical extrapolation methods used in forecasting the economic growth of a country. These limits arise from the choice of forecasting model as well as from the choice of time period length. The beginning and the end of the selected time period is strongly influenced by the phase of the business cycle. The extrapolation method used in this paper is applied to particular examples of GDP development in the Czech Republic in different time periods. The analysis in this paper has two parts. 1.The effect of different business cycle amplitudes of fluctuations, together with different trends, on the economic growth measurement is shown graphically in model situations. The development of economic indicators is composed by the cycle and the trend (in case of a short time-series after seasonal adjustment). In the economy of two countries with the same amplitude of cyclical fluctuation the fast growing trend means only a slowing of growth in the recession phase, but a low rate of growth may show an absolute decline in production. The second option is the analysis of two countries with different amplitudes of cyclical fluctuation by the same trend of economic development. Deeper recessions mean an absolute decrease in the volume of production in comparison with slowing down economic growth in the case of mild recessions. 2.Examples show that time period choice influences the method of extrapolation as well as the resulting trend. The choice of forecasting model depends not only on the trend development of the analyzed macroeconomic indicator but also on the length of period chosen to build the model on. This is especially the case when, due to the cycle,high fluctuation due to the cycle appears, bringing with it the shortening orextension of the analyzed time period (by only one or two years even). This can crucially influence the results of the analysis.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Sborník - 18th Applications of Mathematics and Statistics in Economics

ISBN

9788024520995

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

1-9

Název nakladatele

VŠE

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

2. 8. 2015

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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