Revision of the government?s estimate of the increase in the state budget associated with changes in the gambling sector

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F44555601%3A13510%2F22%3A43898629" target="_blank" >RIV/44555601:13510/22:43898629 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mup.cz/data/files/IFRS2023-sbornik.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.mup.cz/data/files/IFRS2023-sbornik.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Revision of the government?s estimate of the increase in the state budget associated with changes in the gambling sector

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The Czech government and the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic estimate that the introduction of changes under the public finance consolidation package presented in May 2023 will bring CZK 150.7 billion to the state budget. The package includes measures related to the gambling market (namely tax increases and changes in the way tax revenue is allocated between the state and municipalities), which are expected to bring CZK 4.2 billion to the budget in 2024. The objective of our paper is to evaluate this impact using its own calculation ? based on conservative and simplified assumptions (stable growth of the sector, constant ratio of winnings paid out and no supply and demand response), the annual increase to the state budget should amount to CZK 17.8 billion. 89% of this increase is due to the change in the allocation of tax revenue between the municipalities and the State,and not to the increase in taxes (which will bring in only about CZK 2 billion). Thus, the government&apos;s estimate seems to operate with unrealistic assumptions and does not include the sector?s growth next year. The main weaknesses of our calculation are the lack of inclusion of the market response to these changes and the simplistic estimate of the annual growth of the gambling sector. However, even with an even more conservative assumption about the growth of the sector, our estimate of the growth of the state budget is more than double the official estimate.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Revision of the government?s estimate of the increase in the state budget associated with changes in the gambling sector

Popis výsledku anglicky

The Czech government and the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic estimate that the introduction of changes under the public finance consolidation package presented in May 2023 will bring CZK 150.7 billion to the state budget. The package includes measures related to the gambling market (namely tax increases and changes in the way tax revenue is allocated between the state and municipalities), which are expected to bring CZK 4.2 billion to the budget in 2024. The objective of our paper is to evaluate this impact using its own calculation ? based on conservative and simplified assumptions (stable growth of the sector, constant ratio of winnings paid out and no supply and demand response), the annual increase to the state budget should amount to CZK 17.8 billion. 89% of this increase is due to the change in the allocation of tax revenue between the municipalities and the State,and not to the increase in taxes (which will bring in only about CZK 2 billion). Thus, the government&apos;s estimate seems to operate with unrealistic assumptions and does not include the sector?s growth next year. The main weaknesses of our calculation are the lack of inclusion of the market response to these changes and the simplistic estimate of the annual growth of the gambling sector. However, even with an even more conservative assumption about the growth of the sector, our estimate of the growth of the state budget is more than double the official estimate.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Conference Proceedings 10th International Scientific Conference IFRS: Global rules &amp; local use - Beyond the numbers

ISBN

978-80-7638-036-3

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

143-155

Název nakladatele

Metropolitan University Prague

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

12. 10. 2023

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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