Optimal Strategy in Sports Betting

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Optimal Strategy in Sports Betting

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The aim of this paper is to find the optimal strategy for a bettor who bets on soccer matches. We will consider only single odds, i.e. either a win for the home team, a draw, or a win for the away team. No double chances or multiple odds etc. The resultof a particular match is a random variable and the probability of its result is inverse in proportion to the odd given by a bookmaker. The odds of the home team and the odds of the away team are not independent variables - they are also inversely proportional. The optimal strategy should identify the odds and the result which the bettor should bet on. For this optimization we use historical data. For every match we have three odds (home win, draw, away win). We keep only the odds which correspond to theright result. The other ones we substitute with zeros. The modified triples of odds are sorted by the odds for home wins and then they are smoothed by moving averages. If we find a contiguous segment of smoothed values greater than one,

Název v anglickém jazyce

Optimal Strategy in Sports Betting

Popis výsledku anglicky

The aim of this paper is to find the optimal strategy for a bettor who bets on soccer matches. We will consider only single odds, i.e. either a win for the home team, a draw, or a win for the away team. No double chances or multiple odds etc. The resultof a particular match is a random variable and the probability of its result is inverse in proportion to the odd given by a bookmaker. The odds of the home team and the odds of the away team are not independent variables - they are also inversely proportional. The optimal strategy should identify the odds and the result which the bettor should bet on. For this optimization we use historical data. For every match we have three odds (home win, draw, away win). We keep only the odds which correspond to theright result. The other ones we substitute with zeros. The modified triples of odds are sorted by the odds for home wins and then they are smoothed by moving averages. If we find a contiguous segment of smoothed values greater than one,

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2011

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Mathematical Methods in Economics 2011 - part I

ISBN

978-80-7431-058-4

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

599-604

Název nakladatele

Professional Publishing

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Janska Dolina, Slovakia

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2011

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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