The Role of the Exchange Rate in Hungarian Foreign Trade at Commodity Level

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The Role of the Exchange Rate in Hungarian Foreign Trade at Commodity Level

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Previous studies that assessed the impact of currency depreciation on Hungarian trade balance did not find much clear results. We wonder whether these mixed conclusions are due to aggregation bias. Recent studies concerned on the impact of currency depreciations on international trade, have shifted from partner-level trade to examining industry-level trade. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate development of the Hungarian forint on different traded product groups. Examined industries are determined on the basis of SITC classification. We employ the cointegration test to analyse the long run relationship. Short run effects are explored by estimating an error correction model and impulse response functions. We used quarterly data over the period 1997-2013. Our findings suggest that depreciation of Hungarian forint is supposed to improve most of the industry-level trade balances. Short term coefficient do not follow any specific pattern.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The Role of the Exchange Rate in Hungarian Foreign Trade at Commodity Level

Popis výsledku anglicky

Previous studies that assessed the impact of currency depreciation on Hungarian trade balance did not find much clear results. We wonder whether these mixed conclusions are due to aggregation bias. Recent studies concerned on the impact of currency depreciations on international trade, have shifted from partner-level trade to examining industry-level trade. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate development of the Hungarian forint on different traded product groups. Examined industries are determined on the basis of SITC classification. We employ the cointegration test to analyse the long run relationship. Short run effects are explored by estimating an error correction model and impulse response functions. We used quarterly data over the period 1997-2013. Our findings suggest that depreciation of Hungarian forint is supposed to improve most of the industry-level trade balances. Short term coefficient do not follow any specific pattern.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

O - Projekt operacniho programu

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Currency, Banking and International Finance

ISBN

978-80-225-4034-6

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

401-410

Název nakladatele

EKONÓM

Místo vydání

Bratislava

Místo konání akce

Bratislava, Slovensko

Datum konání akce

10. 9. 2014

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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