What can European security architecture look like in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F48546054%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000003" target="_blank" >RIV/48546054:_____/25:N0000003 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2024.2347221" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2024.2347221</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2024.2347221" target="_blank" >10.1080/09662839.2024.2347221</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

What can European security architecture look like in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper outlines the most likely scenarios of the future European security architecture based on an analysis of several drivers, such as Russia’s leadership’s perception of Ukraine, the mindset of the Putinist elite, Russia’s state geopolitics, the domestic situation and prospects of a regime change in Russia, economic sanctions against Russia, energy and the export of Russia’s energy resources, and the positions of key Euratlantic actors. The current “unstable balance model” will remain the most likely scenario in case of a conservation of the situation on the Ukrainian battlefields. Since the concert model of security architecture entails a lack of a revisionist agenda among all the actors, the only reasonably probable security management upgrade is a “positive stable balance”. This scenario is conditioned on degrading Russia’s military capacity, Ukraine’s military advancements on the battlefields, a weakening of the Russian economy and maintaining the support for Ukraine in the EU and NATO.

Název v anglickém jazyce

What can European security architecture look like in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine?

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper outlines the most likely scenarios of the future European security architecture based on an analysis of several drivers, such as Russia’s leadership’s perception of Ukraine, the mindset of the Putinist elite, Russia’s state geopolitics, the domestic situation and prospects of a regime change in Russia, economic sanctions against Russia, energy and the export of Russia’s energy resources, and the positions of key Euratlantic actors. The current “unstable balance model” will remain the most likely scenario in case of a conservation of the situation on the Ukrainian battlefields. Since the concert model of security architecture entails a lack of a revisionist agenda among all the actors, the only reasonably probable security management upgrade is a “positive stable balance”. This scenario is conditioned on degrading Russia’s military capacity, Ukraine’s military advancements on the battlefields, a weakening of the Russian economy and maintaining the support for Ukraine in the EU and NATO.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

European Security

ISSN

0966-2839

e-ISSN

1746-1545

Svazek periodika

34

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

44-64

Kód UT WoS článku

001222466900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85192995796