Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60076658%3A12310%2F18%3A43897659" target="_blank" >RIV/60076658:12310/18:43897659 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/67985939:_____/18:00497348 RIV/60460709:41320/18:78658

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/45/11543" target="_blank" >https://www.pnas.org/content/115/45/11543</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808979115" target="_blank" >10.1073/pnas.1808979115</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique treering-based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33-45 degrees N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Popis výsledku anglicky

Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique treering-based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33-45 degrees N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA17-07378S" target="_blank" >GA17-07378S: Časoprostorová rekonstrukce tropických cyklón a jejich vlivu na strukturu a diverzitu lesů v severovýchodní Asii</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America

ISSN

0027-8424

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

115

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

45

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

11543-11548

Kód UT WoS článku

000449459000067

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85056137413