The evaluation of the success rate of corporate failure prediction in a five-year period

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60076658%3A12510%2F20%3A43901420" target="_blank" >RIV/60076658:12510/20:43901420 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.cjournal.cz/index.php?hid=clanek&bid=archiv&cid=358&cp=" target="_blank" >https://www.cjournal.cz/index.php?hid=clanek&bid=archiv&cid=358&cp=</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2020.01.07" target="_blank" >10.7441/joc.2020.01.07</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The evaluation of the success rate of corporate failure prediction in a five-year period

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The development of bankruptcies in the Czech Republic is closely related to the impact of the global financial economic crisis, which, among other things, has also affected the competitiveness of Czech companies to a great extent. The future state of overall company financial health can be determined through prediction models. This paper discusses the history of financial analysis and the most widely used models, with the main purpose of the paper to compare the accuracy of various prediction models and to decide which model has the highest prediction success rate. The sample consisted of the total of 90 Czech companies, out of which 1/2 were companies in bankruptcy and 1/2 were non-bankrupt companies. Ratio indicators of given models were calculated from balance sheets as well as profit and loss statements for a five-year period. The reliability of the accurate classification of accounting units is verified by a confusion matrix. The highest total success rate of classification was achieved by Zmijevski model, which had the highest predictive value. Another partial objective of the paper is to determine whether the accuracy rate of the bankruptcy models changes with branches within which the companies operate. The hypothesis about differences between the branches is confirmed. The most statistically significant differences were shown between Wholesale and Retail and the Processing Industry, with the results of models varying among different branches. The results show that taking into account the branches the company is operating in is advisable for selecting prediction models.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The evaluation of the success rate of corporate failure prediction in a five-year period

Popis výsledku anglicky

The development of bankruptcies in the Czech Republic is closely related to the impact of the global financial economic crisis, which, among other things, has also affected the competitiveness of Czech companies to a great extent. The future state of overall company financial health can be determined through prediction models. This paper discusses the history of financial analysis and the most widely used models, with the main purpose of the paper to compare the accuracy of various prediction models and to decide which model has the highest prediction success rate. The sample consisted of the total of 90 Czech companies, out of which 1/2 were companies in bankruptcy and 1/2 were non-bankrupt companies. Ratio indicators of given models were calculated from balance sheets as well as profit and loss statements for a five-year period. The reliability of the accurate classification of accounting units is verified by a confusion matrix. The highest total success rate of classification was achieved by Zmijevski model, which had the highest predictive value. Another partial objective of the paper is to determine whether the accuracy rate of the bankruptcy models changes with branches within which the companies operate. The hypothesis about differences between the branches is confirmed. The most statistically significant differences were shown between Wholesale and Retail and the Processing Industry, with the results of models varying among different branches. The results show that taking into account the branches the company is operating in is advisable for selecting prediction models.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50206 - Finance

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Competitiveness

ISSN

1804-171X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

12

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

108-124

Kód UT WoS článku

000522685200008

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85092317574