A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F19%3A00509637" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/19:00509637 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60076658:12310/19:43899571

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/ecy.2787" target="_blank" >https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/ecy.2787</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2787" target="_blank" >10.1002/ecy.2787</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The pattern of sightings of a species that is rare, and then no longer observed, can be used to estimate its extinction date. However, other than physical captures or specimens, the veracity of any sighting is ambiguous, and should be treated probabilistically when used to infer extinction dates. We present a simple yet powerful computational approach for incorporating observational reliability into extinction date estimators (EDE). Our method (1) combines repeated within-year sightings probabilistically, (2) samples observations using reliability as an inclusion probability, (3) infers a probability distribution and summary statistics of extinction dates with any EDE, and (4) computes the frequency distribution of the extinction date. We applied this method to eight exemplar sighting records covering a range of lengths, sighting rates and uncertainties, using a variety of statistical EDEs, and compared these results with a threshold approach for selecting sightings. We also demonstrated a robust coverage of true extinction dates based on selected real-world examples of rediscovered species and confirmed extinctions, and simulated sighting records. Our approach represents a powerful generalization of past work because it is not predicated on any specific method for inferring extinction dates, and yet is simple to implement (with R script provided).

Název v anglickém jazyce

A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators

Popis výsledku anglicky

The pattern of sightings of a species that is rare, and then no longer observed, can be used to estimate its extinction date. However, other than physical captures or specimens, the veracity of any sighting is ambiguous, and should be treated probabilistically when used to infer extinction dates. We present a simple yet powerful computational approach for incorporating observational reliability into extinction date estimators (EDE). Our method (1) combines repeated within-year sightings probabilistically, (2) samples observations using reliability as an inclusion probability, (3) infers a probability distribution and summary statistics of extinction dates with any EDE, and (4) computes the frequency distribution of the extinction date. We applied this method to eight exemplar sighting records covering a range of lengths, sighting rates and uncertainties, using a variety of statistical EDEs, and compared these results with a threshold approach for selecting sightings. We also demonstrated a robust coverage of true extinction dates based on selected real-world examples of rediscovered species and confirmed extinctions, and simulated sighting records. Our approach represents a powerful generalization of past work because it is not predicated on any specific method for inferring extinction dates, and yet is simple to implement (with R script provided).

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Ecology

ISSN

0012-9658

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

100

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

e02787

Kód UT WoS článku

000476192600001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85069844363