Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F22%3A00583539" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/22:00583539 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60077344:_____/22:00562605

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 degrees C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Popis výsledku anglicky

Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 degrees C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

1879-1026

Svazek periodika

851

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Aug

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

158294

Kód UT WoS článku

000863090700004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85137029522