First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F23%3A00572383" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/23:00572383 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/68081766:_____/23:00572383 RIV/00216224:14310/23:00130536 RIV/00027162:_____/23:N0000034

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/3/791" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/3/791</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v15030791" target="_blank" >10.3390/v15030791</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities, (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand, (iii) changes in the landscape, (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen, (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s), (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission, (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts, (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals, and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

Název v anglickém jazyce

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities, (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand, (iii) changes in the landscape, (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen, (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s), (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission, (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts, (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals, and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10607 - Virology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Viruses

ISSN

1999-4915

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

35

Strana od-do

791

Kód UT WoS článku

000963417900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85151218082