Climate drives the long-term ant male production in a tropical community

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F25%3A00605126" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/25:00605126 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60076658:12310/25:43909918

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-84789-z.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-84789-z.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84789-z" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-024-84789-z</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Climate drives the long-term ant male production in a tropical community

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island. In this Panamanian tropical rainforest, traps were deployed for two weeks during the wet and dry seasons. Short-term changes in the timing of male flying activity were pronounced, and compositionally distinct assemblages flew during the wet and dry seasons. Notably, the composition of these distinct flying assemblages oscillated in consistent 4-year cycles but did not change during the 16-year study period. Across time, a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model explained 75% of long-term variability in male ant production (i.e., the summed incidence of male species across traps), which responded negatively to monthly maximum temperature, and positively to sea surface temperature, a surrogate for El Ni & ntilde,o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Establishing these relationships allowed us to forecast ant production until 2022 when year-long local climate variables were available. Consistent with the data, the forecast indicated no significant changes in long-term temporal trends of male ant production. However, simulations of different scenarios of climate variables found that strong ENSO events and maximum temperature impacted male ant production positively and negatively, respectively. Our results highlight the dependence of ant male production on both short- and long-term temperature changes, which is critical under current global warming.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Climate drives the long-term ant male production in a tropical community

Popis výsledku anglicky

Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island. In this Panamanian tropical rainforest, traps were deployed for two weeks during the wet and dry seasons. Short-term changes in the timing of male flying activity were pronounced, and compositionally distinct assemblages flew during the wet and dry seasons. Notably, the composition of these distinct flying assemblages oscillated in consistent 4-year cycles but did not change during the 16-year study period. Across time, a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model explained 75% of long-term variability in male ant production (i.e., the summed incidence of male species across traps), which responded negatively to monthly maximum temperature, and positively to sea surface temperature, a surrogate for El Ni & ntilde,o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Establishing these relationships allowed us to forecast ant production until 2022 when year-long local climate variables were available. Consistent with the data, the forecast indicated no significant changes in long-term temporal trends of male ant production. However, simulations of different scenarios of climate variables found that strong ENSO events and maximum temperature impacted male ant production positively and negatively, respectively. Our results highlight the dependence of ant male production on both short- and long-term temperature changes, which is critical under current global warming.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA20-31295S" target="_blank" >GA20-31295S: Využití genomických a trofických informací v dlouhodobém monitoringu tropického hmyzu: opylovači na ostrově Barro Colorado v Panamě</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

2045-2322

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

428

Kód UT WoS článku

001390048200012

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85213965240