MARKOV MODEL FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE TERRORIST THREAT

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

MARKOV MODEL FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE TERRORIST THREAT

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Terrorist attacks and threat of terrorism are connected with desta- bilization of the threatened societies. The statistical model enabling to predict the risk of the terrorist threat based on given determinants/indicators will be presented. The indicators of the threat of terrorism can be classified into the following categories: economical, social, demographical, political and security. The model is based on the theory of discrete, time nonhomogeneous Markov chains with a finite state space. The theory of generalized linear models is used for estimation of probabilities of the categorized level of terrorist threat. Then the transition probabilities of Markov chain are chosen with regards to the value of the indicators for given time period and considered region. The computed transition probabilities are used for estimation of the intensity (risk category) of terrorism threat. The verification of the model is carried out via simula- tion. Other data used for model verification come from the Global Terrorism Database of University of Maryland. The computational implementation of the suggested model is carried out in the R programming language.

Název v anglickém jazyce

MARKOV MODEL FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE TERRORIST THREAT

Popis výsledku anglicky

Terrorist attacks and threat of terrorism are connected with desta- bilization of the threatened societies. The statistical model enabling to predict the risk of the terrorist threat based on given determinants/indicators will be presented. The indicators of the threat of terrorism can be classified into the following categories: economical, social, demographical, political and security. The model is based on the theory of discrete, time nonhomogeneous Markov chains with a finite state space. The theory of generalized linear models is used for estimation of probabilities of the categorized level of terrorist threat. Then the transition probabilities of Markov chain are chosen with regards to the value of the indicators for given time period and considered region. The computed transition probabilities are used for estimation of the intensity (risk category) of terrorism threat. The verification of the model is carried out via simula- tion. Other data used for model verification come from the Global Terrorism Database of University of Maryland. The computational implementation of the suggested model is carried out in the R programming language.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

XXXII International Conference PDMU Problems of Decision Making under Uncertainties (proceedings)

ISBN

978-80-7582-069-3

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

183-189

Název nakladatele

Univerzita Obrany, Brno

Místo vydání

Česká Republika

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

27. 8. 2018

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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