Modelling Militarized Interstate Disputes Using Data Mining Techniques: Prevention and Prediction of Conflicts

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60162694%3AG42__%2F20%3A00555786" target="_blank" >RIV/60162694:G42__/20:00555786 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1548512920925178" target="_blank" >https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1548512920925178</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1548512920925178" target="_blank" >10.1177/1548512920925178</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Modelling Militarized Interstate Disputes Using Data Mining Techniques: Prevention and Prediction of Conflicts

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The use of modern data mining techniques on large datasets has become a recent phenomenon across a broad range of applications. One of the most frequent tasks is to build statistical models using historical data and utilize them to predict new, so far unclassified cases. This article examines the problem of predicting a military interstate dispute between two states (dyad) by employing selected data mining techniques. Suitable methods are identified and applied to the existing dataset of politically relevant dyads. The result is the building of statistical models for the classification of potential dyadic conflicts. The overall performance of these models is verified and cost analysis is done based on the different impacts of incorrect classification. The results are compared to other published research studies in the field of conflict prediction; the models created by data mining techniques significantly outperform all rival algorithms and approaches. Finally, the last part of the article presents the results of applying data mining techniques to association, i.e. to discovering relationships and dependencies in the data.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Modelling Militarized Interstate Disputes Using Data Mining Techniques: Prevention and Prediction of Conflicts

Popis výsledku anglicky

The use of modern data mining techniques on large datasets has become a recent phenomenon across a broad range of applications. One of the most frequent tasks is to build statistical models using historical data and utilize them to predict new, so far unclassified cases. This article examines the problem of predicting a military interstate dispute between two states (dyad) by employing selected data mining techniques. Suitable methods are identified and applied to the existing dataset of politically relevant dyads. The result is the building of statistical models for the classification of potential dyadic conflicts. The overall performance of these models is verified and cost analysis is done based on the different impacts of incorrect classification. The results are compared to other published research studies in the field of conflict prediction; the models created by data mining techniques significantly outperform all rival algorithms and approaches. Finally, the last part of the article presents the results of applying data mining techniques to association, i.e. to discovering relationships and dependencies in the data.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

21100 - Other engineering and technologies

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology

ISSN

1548-5129

e-ISSN

1557-380X

Svazek periodika

—

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

květen 2020

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

1548512920925178

Kód UT WoS článku

000536606200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85085527991