Redefining Defence Expenditures in B9 Countries: Risk-Based Model for Rational Allocation under Foreign Threat Scenarios

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60162694%3AG42__%2F26%3A00564627" target="_blank" >RIV/60162694:G42__/26:00564627 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/filemanager/files/4557745-en.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/filemanager/files/4557745-en.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3849/1802-7199.25.2025.01.71-112" target="_blank" >10.3849/1802-7199.25.2025.01.71-112</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Redefining Defence Expenditures in B9 Countries: Risk-Based Model for Rational Allocation under Foreign Threat Scenarios

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The article proposes a risk-based model for rational defence expenditure in NATO’s Bucharest Nine (B9) countries that integrates socioeconomic variables and challenges the 2 %-of-GDP benchmark. It contends that optimal funding should reflect both national wealth and the probability and expected consequences of a foreign attack. Applying a quantitative model spanning 2001–2024, with emphasis on the post-2014 environment after Russia’s seizure of Crimea, the authors correlate actual spending with perceived risk and analyse shifts in budgets, threat perceptions, and prosperity, revealing major gaps between observed and rationalised outlays. The results underscore the value of context-sensitive, evidence-grounded budgeting for strategic foresight, credible deterrence, and prudent resource allocation under uncertainty.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Redefining Defence Expenditures in B9 Countries: Risk-Based Model for Rational Allocation under Foreign Threat Scenarios

Popis výsledku anglicky

The article proposes a risk-based model for rational defence expenditure in NATO’s Bucharest Nine (B9) countries that integrates socioeconomic variables and challenges the 2 %-of-GDP benchmark. It contends that optimal funding should reflect both national wealth and the probability and expected consequences of a foreign attack. Applying a quantitative model spanning 2001–2024, with emphasis on the post-2014 environment after Russia’s seizure of Crimea, the authors correlate actual spending with perceived risk and analyse shifts in budgets, threat perceptions, and prosperity, revealing major gaps between observed and rationalised outlays. The results underscore the value of context-sensitive, evidence-grounded budgeting for strategic foresight, credible deterrence, and prudent resource allocation under uncertainty.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

OBRANA A STRATEGIE-DEFENCE & STRATEGY

ISSN

1214-6463

e-ISSN

1802-7199

Svazek periodika

25

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

42

Strana od-do

71-112

Kód UT WoS článku

001523210000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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