Monetary policy and food price inflation: the case of Hungary

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F24%3A101250" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/24:101250 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/jadee-10-2023-0251/full/html?skipTracking=true" target="_blank" >https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/jadee-10-2023-0251/full/html?skipTracking=true</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-10-2023-0251" target="_blank" >10.1108/JADEE-10-2023-0251</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Monetary policy and food price inflation: the case of Hungary

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

PurposeWe analyze the role of monetary policy shocks on food inflation in Hungary from January 2007 to March 2023, including the period of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russo-Ukrainian war.Design/methodology/approachWe use quantile regression with three different specifications. The structural breaks in the time series and the monetary policy's lag in response are also taken into account. We use the M0 money supply and the three-month Hungarian National Bank (MNB) deposit rate as monetary measures to check the robustness of our findings.FindingsWe find that neither the money supply nor the exchange rate affected food inflation across quantiles. In the case of high food price inflation, reducing short-term government bond yields may be an effective solution. Household final consumption affected food prices in the lower quantiles, and the global food price index similarly affected Hungarian food inflation. The results are robust to different specifications.Research limitations/implicationsThis research has limitations as follows: while Hungary's food prices provide a valuable case study, expanding to more countries is advisable; although quantile regression captures details, its reliability for non-linear relationships is questionable; additionally, considering various global food price indicators can enhance result robustness.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the longstanding political debate regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing food inflation. The findings emphasize the importance of considering both domestic and global factors in formulating policy responses to food price dynamics.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Monetary policy and food price inflation: the case of Hungary

Popis výsledku anglicky

PurposeWe analyze the role of monetary policy shocks on food inflation in Hungary from January 2007 to March 2023, including the period of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russo-Ukrainian war.Design/methodology/approachWe use quantile regression with three different specifications. The structural breaks in the time series and the monetary policy's lag in response are also taken into account. We use the M0 money supply and the three-month Hungarian National Bank (MNB) deposit rate as monetary measures to check the robustness of our findings.FindingsWe find that neither the money supply nor the exchange rate affected food inflation across quantiles. In the case of high food price inflation, reducing short-term government bond yields may be an effective solution. Household final consumption affected food prices in the lower quantiles, and the global food price index similarly affected Hungarian food inflation. The results are robust to different specifications.Research limitations/implicationsThis research has limitations as follows: while Hungary's food prices provide a valuable case study, expanding to more countries is advisable; although quantile regression captures details, its reliability for non-linear relationships is questionable; additionally, considering various global food price indicators can enhance result robustness.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the longstanding political debate regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing food inflation. The findings emphasize the importance of considering both domestic and global factors in formulating policy responses to food price dynamics.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies

ISSN

2044-0839

e-ISSN

2044-0839

Svazek periodika

neuvedeno

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

neuvedeno

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

1

Strana od-do

—

Kód UT WoS článku

001234933100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85194759309