COVID-19 under-reporting: spillovers and stringent containment strategies of global cases

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F24%3A101343" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/24:101343 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11123-024-00741-3.pdf" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11123-024-00741-3.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11123-024-00741-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11123-024-00741-3</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

COVID-19 under-reporting: spillovers and stringent containment strategies of global cases

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, accurately determining the true global infection count has become an extremely challenging task. In this context, our study explores the spatial spillover analysis of COVID-19 cases and assesses the impact of containment policy stringency on these spillovers. Furthermore, we examine the extent of under-reporting of COVID-19 cases at the country level. To account for diverse spatial dependencies, we employ a semiparametric spatial autoregressive model, in which the coefficients are smooth, unknown functions of countries' stringency indices. Country-specific under-reporting, modeled as a one-sided deterministic function of exogenous variables, is estimated using the sieves method. Our analysis relies on COVID-19 infection data from 57 countries, which span from 2020 to 2021. We find that spillovers vary significantly across different levels of containment stringency. In addition, the true number of infections is estimated to be 1.72 to 5.73 times higher than the reported cases. These results align with previous research and have important policy implications for improving the precision of COVID-19 reporting and managing spillover effects more effectively.

Název v anglickém jazyce

COVID-19 under-reporting: spillovers and stringent containment strategies of global cases

Popis výsledku anglicky

Due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, accurately determining the true global infection count has become an extremely challenging task. In this context, our study explores the spatial spillover analysis of COVID-19 cases and assesses the impact of containment policy stringency on these spillovers. Furthermore, we examine the extent of under-reporting of COVID-19 cases at the country level. To account for diverse spatial dependencies, we employ a semiparametric spatial autoregressive model, in which the coefficients are smooth, unknown functions of countries' stringency indices. Country-specific under-reporting, modeled as a one-sided deterministic function of exogenous variables, is estimated using the sieves method. Our analysis relies on COVID-19 infection data from 57 countries, which span from 2020 to 2021. We find that spillovers vary significantly across different levels of containment stringency. In addition, the true number of infections is estimated to be 1.72 to 5.73 times higher than the reported cases. These results align with previous research and have important policy implications for improving the precision of COVID-19 reporting and managing spillover effects more effectively.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS

ISSN

0895-562X

e-ISSN

0895-562X

Svazek periodika

neuvedeno

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

neuvedeno

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

20

Strana od-do

1-20

Kód UT WoS článku

001348781600001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85208125329