Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Transboundary Danube River Basin: Integrating Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity Indicators

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41210%2F25%3A102285" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41210/25:102285 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70090?saml_referrer" target="_blank" >https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70090?saml_referrer</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.70090" target="_blank" >10.1002/joc.70090</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Transboundary Danube River Basin: Integrating Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity Indicators

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Agricultural drought increasingly threatens food security and water sustainability in transboundary river basins. This study presents the Integrated Drought Vulnerability Index (IDVI), a composite metric based on the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) framework, assessing agricultural drought vulnerability across eight Danube River Basin countries. The IDVI combines 12 sub- indices covering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity into a single normalised score for eight countries, providing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment from 2001 to 2022. The DVI- based Exposure sub- index uses the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) to capture drought frequency (DF), duration (DD), and intensity (DI). The Sensitivity sub- index incorporates arable land share (ALS), population density (PD), elderly population proportion (EP), poverty rate (PR), and agriculture's GDP contribution (AGS). The Adaptive Capacity sub- index integrates Gross Domestic Product per Capita (GDP per Capita), water use efficiency (WUE), renewable water resources (RWR), and Income Inequality (II). Three weighting approaches—Equal Weighting (EqW), Factor- Based Weights (FbW), and Monte Carlo simulation (MC)—were systematically compared. Exposure indicators showed consistent contributions across methods, with DI identified as the most influential factor (MC weight = 0.34), exhibiting high stability (Spearman's r > 0.90; KS < 0.30). The DVI- based Sensitivity subindex showed agricultural dependence, mainly ALS and AGS, as the key drivers, reaching 72% of sensitivity weight in eastern countries. Adaptive Capacity showed significant regional variation; MC simulations delivered statistically robust weights (Spearman's r up to 0.98, KS < 0.04), emphasising differences in WUE, economic capacity, RWR, and institutional strength. IDVI results show that 27% of the study area faces high drought vulnerability, primarily driven by demographic pressure, social inequality, and water scarcity. The study identifies the regions and populations most vulnerable to agricultural drought, highlighting the urgent need for region- specific adaptation strategies and targeted drought mitigation efforts to enhance resilience in these high- risk areas.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Transboundary Danube River Basin: Integrating Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity Indicators

Popis výsledku anglicky

Agricultural drought increasingly threatens food security and water sustainability in transboundary river basins. This study presents the Integrated Drought Vulnerability Index (IDVI), a composite metric based on the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) framework, assessing agricultural drought vulnerability across eight Danube River Basin countries. The IDVI combines 12 sub- indices covering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity into a single normalised score for eight countries, providing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment from 2001 to 2022. The DVI- based Exposure sub- index uses the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) to capture drought frequency (DF), duration (DD), and intensity (DI). The Sensitivity sub- index incorporates arable land share (ALS), population density (PD), elderly population proportion (EP), poverty rate (PR), and agriculture's GDP contribution (AGS). The Adaptive Capacity sub- index integrates Gross Domestic Product per Capita (GDP per Capita), water use efficiency (WUE), renewable water resources (RWR), and Income Inequality (II). Three weighting approaches—Equal Weighting (EqW), Factor- Based Weights (FbW), and Monte Carlo simulation (MC)—were systematically compared. Exposure indicators showed consistent contributions across methods, with DI identified as the most influential factor (MC weight = 0.34), exhibiting high stability (Spearman's r > 0.90; KS < 0.30). The DVI- based Sensitivity subindex showed agricultural dependence, mainly ALS and AGS, as the key drivers, reaching 72% of sensitivity weight in eastern countries. Adaptive Capacity showed significant regional variation; MC simulations delivered statistically robust weights (Spearman's r up to 0.98, KS < 0.04), emphasising differences in WUE, economic capacity, RWR, and institutional strength. IDVI results show that 27% of the study area faces high drought vulnerability, primarily driven by demographic pressure, social inequality, and water scarcity. The study identifies the regions and populations most vulnerable to agricultural drought, highlighting the urgent need for region- specific adaptation strategies and targeted drought mitigation efforts to enhance resilience in these high- risk areas.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

ISSN

0899-8418

e-ISSN

1097-0088

Svazek periodika

45

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

14

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

—

Kód UT WoS článku

001559435000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105014521868