Nonlinear time series analysis unravels underlying mechanisms of interspecific synchrony among foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F20%3AN0000148" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/20:N0000148 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://esj-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/1438-390X.12025" target="_blank" >https://esj-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/1438-390X.12025</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/1438-390X.12025" target="_blank" >10.1002/1438-390X.12025</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Nonlinear time series analysis unravels underlying mechanisms of interspecific synchrony among foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Interspecific synchrony, that is, synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species can arise via several possible mechanisms, including common environmental effects, direct interactions between species, and shared trophic interactions, so that distinguishing the relative importance of these causes can be challenging. In this study, to overcome this difficulty, we combine traditional correlation analysis with a novel framework of nonlinear time series analysis, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM). The EDM is an analytical framework to identify causal relationships and measure changing interaction strength from time series. We apply this approach to time series of sympatric foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species in the Slovak Republic and yearly mean temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These Lepidoptera species include both free-feeding and leaf-roller larval life histories: the former are hypothesized to be more strongly affected by similar exogenous environments, while the latter are isolated from such pressures. Correlation analysis showed that interspecific synchrony is generally strongest between species within same feeding guild. In addition, the convergent cross mapping analysis detected causal effects of meteorological factors on most of the free-feeding species while such effects were not observed in the leaf-rolling species. However, there were fewer causal relationships among species. The multivariate S-map analysis showed that meteorological factors tend to affect similar free-feeding species that are synchronous with each other. These results indicate that shared meteorological factors are key drivers of interspecific synchrony among members of the free-feeding guild, but do not play the same role in synchronizing species within the leaf-roller guild.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Nonlinear time series analysis unravels underlying mechanisms of interspecific synchrony among foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species

Popis výsledku anglicky

Interspecific synchrony, that is, synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species can arise via several possible mechanisms, including common environmental effects, direct interactions between species, and shared trophic interactions, so that distinguishing the relative importance of these causes can be challenging. In this study, to overcome this difficulty, we combine traditional correlation analysis with a novel framework of nonlinear time series analysis, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM). The EDM is an analytical framework to identify causal relationships and measure changing interaction strength from time series. We apply this approach to time series of sympatric foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species in the Slovak Republic and yearly mean temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These Lepidoptera species include both free-feeding and leaf-roller larval life histories: the former are hypothesized to be more strongly affected by similar exogenous environments, while the latter are isolated from such pressures. Correlation analysis showed that interspecific synchrony is generally strongest between species within same feeding guild. In addition, the convergent cross mapping analysis detected causal effects of meteorological factors on most of the free-feeding species while such effects were not observed in the leaf-rolling species. However, there were fewer causal relationships among species. The multivariate S-map analysis showed that meteorological factors tend to affect similar free-feeding species that are synchronous with each other. These results indicate that shared meteorological factors are key drivers of interspecific synchrony among members of the free-feeding guild, but do not play the same role in synchronizing species within the leaf-roller guild.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000803" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000803: Excelentní Výzkum jako podpora Adaptace lesnictví a dřevařství na globální změnu a 4. průmyslovou revoluci</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

POPULATION ECOLOGY

ISSN

1438-3896

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

62

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

JP - Japonsko

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

5-14

Kód UT WoS článku

000494670000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85074810850