Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F21%3A92030" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/21:92030 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/67985939:_____/21:00546878 RIV/00216208:11310/21:10439340

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15333" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15333</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15333" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.15333</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this r

Název v anglickém jazyce

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Popis výsledku anglicky

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this r

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000803" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000803: Excelentní Výzkum jako podpora Adaptace lesnictví a dřevařství na globální změnu a 4. průmyslovou revoluci</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

ISSN

1354-1013

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

27

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

970-982

Kód UT WoS článku

000573859100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85091730957