Spruce bark beetle phenological modelling and drought risk within framework of TANABBO II model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F24%3A101688" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/24:101688 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002023" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002023</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110814" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110814</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Spruce bark beetle phenological modelling and drought risk within framework of TANABBO II model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Global warming plays a major role in the disruption of forest ecosystems by bark beetle outbreaks. Decreasing precipitation and more frequent droughts create the conditions for water stress in trees. The Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is more dangerous for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests in Central Europe under these conditions, because even healthy trees under water stress have a lower probability of survival during massive spruce bark beetle outbreaks. This critical issue highlights the importance of targeted research and intervention strategies in affected regions; hence, this study has a focus on the Horn & iacute; Plana region in Central Europe, which is managed by the Military Forests and Farms of the Czech Republic (VLS). The study presents the results of the drought risk assessment of the operational part of TANABBO II and its validation. TANABBO is a high spatial resolution risk assessment tool for spruce bark beetle infestation in Central European forests, incorporating 30 m spatial resolution and extensive meteorological data, which outperforms existing models in its ability to accurately predict bark beetle activity based on the PHENIPS phenological model. The operational part integrates environmental factors such as global radiation, temperature, precipitation and, in particular, water stress, which is assessed by using a transpiration deficit. The drought risk assessment included the calculation of Drought Indices (DI) and Cumulative Transpiration Deficit Indices (CTDI) on a daily basis, and the estimation of spruce bark beetle swarming time using the PHENIPS model. The risk assessment was validated by comparing it with the number of bark beetles caught in traps and the value of the drought index. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used for validation, with the most effective models incorporating the CTDI. The model with the highest predictive accuracy achieved an adjusted R-squared value of 0.478. The study highlights the critical role of high-resolution environmental data in understanding and managing bark beetle outbreaks, particularly in the context of climate change.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Spruce bark beetle phenological modelling and drought risk within framework of TANABBO II model

Popis výsledku anglicky

Global warming plays a major role in the disruption of forest ecosystems by bark beetle outbreaks. Decreasing precipitation and more frequent droughts create the conditions for water stress in trees. The Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is more dangerous for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests in Central Europe under these conditions, because even healthy trees under water stress have a lower probability of survival during massive spruce bark beetle outbreaks. This critical issue highlights the importance of targeted research and intervention strategies in affected regions; hence, this study has a focus on the Horn & iacute; Plana region in Central Europe, which is managed by the Military Forests and Farms of the Czech Republic (VLS). The study presents the results of the drought risk assessment of the operational part of TANABBO II and its validation. TANABBO is a high spatial resolution risk assessment tool for spruce bark beetle infestation in Central European forests, incorporating 30 m spatial resolution and extensive meteorological data, which outperforms existing models in its ability to accurately predict bark beetle activity based on the PHENIPS phenological model. The operational part integrates environmental factors such as global radiation, temperature, precipitation and, in particular, water stress, which is assessed by using a transpiration deficit. The drought risk assessment included the calculation of Drought Indices (DI) and Cumulative Transpiration Deficit Indices (CTDI) on a daily basis, and the estimation of spruce bark beetle swarming time using the PHENIPS model. The risk assessment was validated by comparing it with the number of bark beetles caught in traps and the value of the drought index. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used for validation, with the most effective models incorporating the CTDI. The model with the highest predictive accuracy achieved an adjusted R-squared value of 0.478. The study highlights the critical role of high-resolution environmental data in understanding and managing bark beetle outbreaks, particularly in the context of climate change.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40102 - Forestry

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

ISSN

0304-3800

e-ISSN

0304-3800

Svazek periodika

496

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2024

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

1-13

Kód UT WoS článku

001291162100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85200714259