The increasing role of drought as an inciting factor of bark beetle outbreaks can cause large-scale transformation of Central European forests

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F25%3A103163" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/25:103163 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w?utm_source=getftr&utm_medium=getftr&utm_campaign=getftr_pilot&getft_integrator=clarivate" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w?utm_source=getftr&utm_medium=getftr&utm_campaign=getftr_pilot&getft_integrator=clarivate</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The increasing role of drought as an inciting factor of bark beetle outbreaks can cause large-scale transformation of Central European forests

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

ContextHistorically, large-scale outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle were initiated mainly by windthrows. However, after 2018, a severe drought triggered the hitherto largest bark beetle outbreak observed in Europe, signalling a major shift in the disturbance regime.ObjectivesDevelop and test an approach that allows simulating this novel disturbance dynamics and evaluate landscape-scale compound impacts of wind- and drought-initiated outbreaks throughout the twenty-first century.MethodsWe incorporated drought-initiated outbreaks into the forest landscape simulation model iLand, using critical values of vapour pressure deficit as the outbreak trigger. Forest management records and remote sensing-based disturbance maps were used to derive model parameters and evaluate simulated dynamics in a Central European forest landscape (41,000 hectares). The period 1961-2021 was used for model evaluation, and the years until 2100 for scenario analysis.ResultsIncorporating drought as outbreak trigger led to a notable decoupling of wind and bark beetle disturbances, which have historically formed a typical disturbance cascade in European forests. While forest growing stock and species composition were resilient to a wind-dominated disturbance regime, this resilience diminished under the compounded impact of wind- and drought-triggered disturbances. The new disturbance regime caused a persistent decline in Norway spruce and resulted in an overall decrease in landscape-level growing stock.ConclusionsOur findings underscore the urgent need for new approaches to evaluate increasingly complex disturbance dynamics and suggest that the future impacts of bark beetles on forest landscapes may be greater than previously anticipated.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The increasing role of drought as an inciting factor of bark beetle outbreaks can cause large-scale transformation of Central European forests

Popis výsledku anglicky

ContextHistorically, large-scale outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle were initiated mainly by windthrows. However, after 2018, a severe drought triggered the hitherto largest bark beetle outbreak observed in Europe, signalling a major shift in the disturbance regime.ObjectivesDevelop and test an approach that allows simulating this novel disturbance dynamics and evaluate landscape-scale compound impacts of wind- and drought-initiated outbreaks throughout the twenty-first century.MethodsWe incorporated drought-initiated outbreaks into the forest landscape simulation model iLand, using critical values of vapour pressure deficit as the outbreak trigger. Forest management records and remote sensing-based disturbance maps were used to derive model parameters and evaluate simulated dynamics in a Central European forest landscape (41,000 hectares). The period 1961-2021 was used for model evaluation, and the years until 2100 for scenario analysis.ResultsIncorporating drought as outbreak trigger led to a notable decoupling of wind and bark beetle disturbances, which have historically formed a typical disturbance cascade in European forests. While forest growing stock and species composition were resilient to a wind-dominated disturbance regime, this resilience diminished under the compounded impact of wind- and drought-triggered disturbances. The new disturbance regime caused a persistent decline in Norway spruce and resulted in an overall decrease in landscape-level growing stock.ConclusionsOur findings underscore the urgent need for new approaches to evaluate increasingly complex disturbance dynamics and suggest that the future impacts of bark beetles on forest landscapes may be greater than previously anticipated.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/QK23020039" target="_blank" >QK23020039: Prognózy vývoje kůrovcové kalamity a inovativní přístupy k jejímu managementu na úrovni státu a vlastníků lesů</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Landscape Ecology

ISSN

0921-2973

e-ISSN

0921-2973

Svazek periodika

40

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

19

Strana od-do

1-19

Kód UT WoS článku

001492904900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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