Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F20%3A82292" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/20:82292 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001667" target="_blank" >https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001667</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001667" target="_blank" >10.1029/2020EF001667</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Multi model climate experiments carried out as part of different phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are crucial to evaluate past and future climate change. The reliability of models simulations is often gauged by their ability to reproduce the historical climate across many time scales. This study compares the global mean surface air temperature from 29 CMIP6 models with observations from three datasets. We examine (1) warming and cooling rates in five subperiods from 1880 to 2014, (2) autocorrelation and long term persistence, (3) models performance based on probabilistic and entropy metrics, and (4) the distributional shape of temperature. All models simulate the observed long term warming trend from 1880 to 2014. The late twentieth century warming (1975 2014) and the hiatus (1942 1975) are replicated by most models. The post 1998 warming is overestimated in 90% of the simulations. Only six out of 29 models reproduce the observed long term persistence. All models show differ

Název v anglickém jazyce

Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape

Popis výsledku anglicky

Multi model climate experiments carried out as part of different phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are crucial to evaluate past and future climate change. The reliability of models simulations is often gauged by their ability to reproduce the historical climate across many time scales. This study compares the global mean surface air temperature from 29 CMIP6 models with observations from three datasets. We examine (1) warming and cooling rates in five subperiods from 1880 to 2014, (2) autocorrelation and long term persistence, (3) models performance based on probabilistic and entropy metrics, and (4) the distributional shape of temperature. All models simulate the observed long term warming trend from 1880 to 2014. The late twentieth century warming (1975 2014) and the hiatus (1942 1975) are replicated by most models. The post 1998 warming is overestimated in 90% of the simulations. Only six out of 29 models reproduce the observed long term persistence. All models show differ

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Earth Futures

ISSN

2328-4277

e-ISSN

2328-4277

Svazek periodika

8

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

10

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

1-14

Kód UT WoS článku

000587316800017

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85093916232