Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97216" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97216 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

With global warming, the behavior of extreme precipitation shifts toward nonstationarity. Here, we analyze the annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) all over the globe using projections of the latest phase of the Coupled corrected using a semiparametric quantile mapping, a novel technique extended to extreme precipitation. This analysis 1) explores the variability of future AMP globally and 2) investigates the performance of stationary and nonstationary models in describing future AMP with trends. The results show that global warming potentially intensifies AMP. For the nonparametric analysis, the 33-yr precipitation levels are increasing up to 33.2 mm compared to the historical period. The parametric analysis shows that the return period of 100-yr historical events will decrease approximately to 50 and 70 years in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Under the highest emission scenario, the projected 100-yr levels are expected to increase by 7.5%-21% over the historical levels. Using stationary models to estimate the 100-yr return level for AMP projections with trends leads to an underestimation of 3.4% on average. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are implemented to explain this underestimation.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?

Popis výsledku anglicky

With global warming, the behavior of extreme precipitation shifts toward nonstationarity. Here, we analyze the annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) all over the globe using projections of the latest phase of the Coupled corrected using a semiparametric quantile mapping, a novel technique extended to extreme precipitation. This analysis 1) explores the variability of future AMP globally and 2) investigates the performance of stationary and nonstationary models in describing future AMP with trends. The results show that global warming potentially intensifies AMP. For the nonparametric analysis, the 33-yr precipitation levels are increasing up to 33.2 mm compared to the historical period. The parametric analysis shows that the return period of 100-yr historical events will decrease approximately to 50 and 70 years in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Under the highest emission scenario, the projected 100-yr levels are expected to increase by 7.5%-21% over the historical levels. Using stationary models to estimate the 100-yr return level for AMP projections with trends leads to an underestimation of 3.4% on average. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are implemented to explain this underestimation.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

ISSN

0894-8755

e-ISSN

0894-8755

Svazek periodika

36

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

2999-3014

Kód UT WoS článku

000964667100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85158866965