Improving global hydrological simulations through bias-correction and multi-model blending

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97224" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97224 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129607" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129607</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129607" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129607</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Improving global hydrological simulations through bias-correction and multi-model blending

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

There is an immediate need to develop accurate and reliable global hydrological forecasts in light of the future vulnerability to hydrological hazards and water scarcity under a changing climate. As a part of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) initiative, we investigated different approaches to blending multi-model simulations for developing holistic operational global forecasts. The ULYSSES (mULti-model hYdrological SeaSonal prEdictionS system) dataset, to be published as Global seasonal forecasts and reforecasts of river discharge and related hydrological variables ensemble from four state-of-the-art land surface and hydrological modelsis used in this study. The first step for improving these forecasts is to investigate ways to improve the model simulations, as global models are not calibrated for local conditions. The analysis was performed over 119 different catchments worldwide for the baseline period of 1981-2019 for three variables: evapotranspiration, surface soil moisture and streamflow. This study evaluated blending approaches with a performance metric based (weighted) averaging of the multi-model simulations, using the catchment's Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for the variable to define the weight. Hydrological model simulations were also bias-corrected to improve the multi-model blending output. Weighted blending in conjunction with bias-correction provided the best improvement in performance for the catchments investigated. Applying modelled weights during blending original simulations improved performance over ungauged catchments. The results indicate that there is potential to successfully and easily implement the bias-corrected weighted blending approach to improve operational forecasts globally. This work can be used to improve water resources management and hydrological hazard mitigation, especially in data-sparse regions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Improving global hydrological simulations through bias-correction and multi-model blending

Popis výsledku anglicky

There is an immediate need to develop accurate and reliable global hydrological forecasts in light of the future vulnerability to hydrological hazards and water scarcity under a changing climate. As a part of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) initiative, we investigated different approaches to blending multi-model simulations for developing holistic operational global forecasts. The ULYSSES (mULti-model hYdrological SeaSonal prEdictionS system) dataset, to be published as Global seasonal forecasts and reforecasts of river discharge and related hydrological variables ensemble from four state-of-the-art land surface and hydrological modelsis used in this study. The first step for improving these forecasts is to investigate ways to improve the model simulations, as global models are not calibrated for local conditions. The analysis was performed over 119 different catchments worldwide for the baseline period of 1981-2019 for three variables: evapotranspiration, surface soil moisture and streamflow. This study evaluated blending approaches with a performance metric based (weighted) averaging of the multi-model simulations, using the catchment's Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for the variable to define the weight. Hydrological model simulations were also bias-corrected to improve the multi-model blending output. Weighted blending in conjunction with bias-correction provided the best improvement in performance for the catchments investigated. Applying modelled weights during blending original simulations improved performance over ungauged catchments. The results indicate that there is potential to successfully and easily implement the bias-corrected weighted blending approach to improve operational forecasts globally. This work can be used to improve water resources management and hydrological hazard mitigation, especially in data-sparse regions.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Hydrology

ISSN

0022-1694

e-ISSN

0022-1694

Svazek periodika

621

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

129607

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

1-15

Kód UT WoS článku

001010514400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85159102905