Effects of extreme events on land-use-related decisions of farmers in Eastern Austria: the role of learning

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97535" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97535 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00890-z" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00890-z</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00890-z" target="_blank" >10.1007/s13593-023-00890-z</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Effects of extreme events on land-use-related decisions of farmers in Eastern Austria: the role of learning

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

European farm households will face increasingly challenging conditions in the coming decades due to climate change, as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events rise. This study assesses the complex interrelations between external framework conditions such as climate change or adjustments in the agricultural price and subsidy schemes with farmers' decision-making. As social aspects remain understudied drivers for agricultural decisions, we also consider value-based characteristics of farmers as internal factors relevant for decision-making. We integrate individual learning as response to extreme weather events into an agent-based model that simulates farmers' decision-making. We applied the model to a region in Eastern Austria that already experiences water scarcity and increasing drought risk from climate change and simulated three future scenarios to compare the effects of changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions. In a cross-comparison, we then investigated how farmers can navigate these changes through individual adaptation. The agricultural trajectories project a decline of active farms between -27 and -37% accompanied by a reduction of agricultural area between -20 and -30% until 2053. The results show that regardless of the scenario conditions, adaptation through learning moderates the decline in the number of active farms and farmland compared to scenarios without adaptive learning. However, adaptation increases the workload of farmers. This highlights the need for labor support for farms.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Effects of extreme events on land-use-related decisions of farmers in Eastern Austria: the role of learning

Popis výsledku anglicky

European farm households will face increasingly challenging conditions in the coming decades due to climate change, as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events rise. This study assesses the complex interrelations between external framework conditions such as climate change or adjustments in the agricultural price and subsidy schemes with farmers' decision-making. As social aspects remain understudied drivers for agricultural decisions, we also consider value-based characteristics of farmers as internal factors relevant for decision-making. We integrate individual learning as response to extreme weather events into an agent-based model that simulates farmers' decision-making. We applied the model to a region in Eastern Austria that already experiences water scarcity and increasing drought risk from climate change and simulated three future scenarios to compare the effects of changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions. In a cross-comparison, we then investigated how farmers can navigate these changes through individual adaptation. The agricultural trajectories project a decline of active farms between -27 and -37% accompanied by a reduction of agricultural area between -20 and -30% until 2053. The results show that regardless of the scenario conditions, adaptation through learning moderates the decline in the number of active farms and farmland compared to scenarios without adaptive learning. However, adaptation increases the workload of farmers. This highlights the need for labor support for farms.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40106 - Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection; (Agricultural biotechnology to be 4.4)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agronomy for Sustainable Development

ISSN

1774-0746

e-ISSN

1774-0746

Svazek periodika

43

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

1-17

Kód UT WoS článku

000985753200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85159171884