Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97564" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97564 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. Species' range shifts projections are usually based on climate and land cover variables. Here, the authors use long-term records for bird species to show that species distribution models accounting for climate and land cover often fail to predict observed range shifts.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Popis výsledku anglicky

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. Species' range shifts projections are usually based on climate and land cover variables. Here, the authors use long-term records for bird species to show that species distribution models accounting for climate and land cover often fail to predict observed range shifts.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Communications

ISSN

2041-1723

e-ISSN

2041-1723

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

1-12

Kód UT WoS článku

001040020600003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85165465504