How extreme are flood peak distributions? A quasi-global analysis of daily discharge records

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F24%3A100833" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/24:100833 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130849" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130849</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130849" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130849</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

How extreme are flood peak distributions? A quasi-global analysis of daily discharge records

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

A higher chance of extreme floods is often revealed by a probability distribution with a slower decay and a heavier tail. There are numerous and conflicting findings in previous studies that describe flood behavior in different regimes. Our research aims to reconcile these discrepancies by examining the influence of record length and flow regime on the upper tail behavior of floods which holds implications for engineering design and operational purposes related to flood prevention and management. Our investigation focuses on a quasi -global peak -over -threshold (POT) analysis using the Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. While we employ a single distribution model due to its practicability and parametric parsimony, our primary objective is to understand how the variation in the distribution parameters, here GP shape parameter, reflects heaviness in the flood tails. We investigate 4,482 streamflow series across six distinct regime types with record lengths ranging from 30 to 213 years. Our findings reveal that as the record length increases, the variance of the GP shape parameter decreases, and the mean value converges to a fixed threshold, depending on the flow regime. We show that snow -dominated streams exhibit the lowest shape parameter (gamma = 0.074) and intermittent streams exhibit the highest (gamma = 0.384). We further investigate how the hydroclimatic and catchment controls affect flood tails and find that the influential controls of tail heaviness vary depending on the flow regime. Identifying catchments with a higher likelihood of experiencing extreme floods can help prioritize flood risk management practices. We recommend further research to identify the interactions between climatic and catchment controls of floods to improve the prediction of heavy tails. Our research provides insights into the behavior of flood tails across different streamflow regimes and their underlying drivers.

Název v anglickém jazyce

How extreme are flood peak distributions? A quasi-global analysis of daily discharge records

Popis výsledku anglicky

A higher chance of extreme floods is often revealed by a probability distribution with a slower decay and a heavier tail. There are numerous and conflicting findings in previous studies that describe flood behavior in different regimes. Our research aims to reconcile these discrepancies by examining the influence of record length and flow regime on the upper tail behavior of floods which holds implications for engineering design and operational purposes related to flood prevention and management. Our investigation focuses on a quasi -global peak -over -threshold (POT) analysis using the Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. While we employ a single distribution model due to its practicability and parametric parsimony, our primary objective is to understand how the variation in the distribution parameters, here GP shape parameter, reflects heaviness in the flood tails. We investigate 4,482 streamflow series across six distinct regime types with record lengths ranging from 30 to 213 years. Our findings reveal that as the record length increases, the variance of the GP shape parameter decreases, and the mean value converges to a fixed threshold, depending on the flow regime. We show that snow -dominated streams exhibit the lowest shape parameter (gamma = 0.074) and intermittent streams exhibit the highest (gamma = 0.384). We further investigate how the hydroclimatic and catchment controls affect flood tails and find that the influential controls of tail heaviness vary depending on the flow regime. Identifying catchments with a higher likelihood of experiencing extreme floods can help prioritize flood risk management practices. We recommend further research to identify the interactions between climatic and catchment controls of floods to improve the prediction of heavy tails. Our research provides insights into the behavior of flood tails across different streamflow regimes and their underlying drivers.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Hydrology

ISSN

0022-1694

e-ISSN

0022-1694

Svazek periodika

631

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

130849

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

20

Strana od-do

1-20

Kód UT WoS článku

001184019400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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